The SEC Tournament Championship Game is finally here as 4-seeded Auburn squares off with 6-seeded Florida before Sunday’s selection show for March Madness.
The Gators look to win their second straight against Auburn after dominating the first matchup in Gainesville. Auburn takes on Florida on Sunday, March 17, at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Can Auburn exact revenge for its early-season loss, or will the Gators win their second straight against an inconsistent Tigers squad?
Here's my Auburn vs Florida pick and Auburn vs Florida prediction for the SEC Tournament Championship today.
Auburn vs Florida Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | +190 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 158 -110o / -110u | -230 |
Auburn vs Florida Prediction & Pick: Florida +6 | Bet to +5
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview
The story of Auburn’s season has been its struggles away from Neville Arena. Until Friday evening, the Tigers hadn't beaten an NCAA tournament team on the road.
But those fears were quickly dismissed with the dismantling of South Carolina and Mississippi State.
From an analytics perspective, Auburn sits alone as the only team ranked inside KenPom’s top 10 of Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.
The Tigers have dealt with inconsistent guard play throughout the season, but the one consistency has been big man Johni Broome.
Broome takes over 30% of the Tigers' shots while on the floor and ranks inside the top five in SEC play in block rate, defensive rebounding rate and fouls drawn per 40 minutes. He leads the team in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.5), and has added 2.1 assists per game.
Auburn is as physical as teams come. The Tigers draw fouls at an elite rate and rank inside the top three in both 2-point and 3-point shooting. Broome and Jaylin Williams allow for Auburn to space the floor, making it all the more difficult to slow down this offense.
On the other end, Auburn ranks first in 2-point percentage defensively. The Tigers are also top-20 when defending the perimeter.
The aggressiveness of this defense leads to a top-100 turnover rate, but it also leads to heavy fouling (332nd in FTA/FGA).
The good news? Auburn is top-10 in terms of bench minutes and can deploy a 10-man rotation at will.
I took a 60/1 future on Auburn to win the NCAA tournament early in non-conference play because of its depth and physicality. This is a team that, if the guards run well, should pick apart and bully the competition.
We’ve seen that plenty this season.
Florida Gators Betting Preview
I wrote about taking a 20/1 future out on Florida, and it's one game away from lifting the trophy.
The Gators have, at times, been a confusing team to figure out. They dominated the likes of Auburn and Alabama (twice) and went into Lexington and took down Kentucky. But UF also lost to Vanderbilt and nearly fell to Georgia. To put it simply, Florida is prone to playing down to its opponents.
However, this is one of the most physical and exhausting frontcourts to defend in college basketball. The Gators rank inside the top five in offensive rebounding rate (38.5%) and inside the top 70 in FTA/FGA.
UF’s ability to grab second-chance opportunities at an elite rate allows for players like Walter Clayton Jr. and Zyon Pullin to fire away from deep.
In general, this is a fast-paced, downhill attacking team that's relentless.
Todd Golden struck gold in the transfer portal. Tyrese Samuel (Seton Hall) has been a huge addition around the rim, while the duo of Clayton (Iona) and Pullin (San Francisco) make up one of the most dynamic backcourts in the conference.
Thanks to its physicality and length inside, Florida looks to funnel opponents into the mid-range toward the likes of Samuel and Micah Handlogten. UF doesn't force many turnovers, though it does rank inside the top 100 defending both 2s and 3s.
Similar to some of the other fast-paced offenses in the SEC, defense is the Gators' biggest weakness.
Though one positive to take from the Gators’ conference success has been its No. 1 ranking defending the perimeter (30.7%). ShotQuality projects positive regression for this defense, both at the rim (5%) and on the perimeter (3%).
Evan Miya ranks Florida as the sixth-best team in terms of his opponent adjusted metric. That bodes well for UF in this one.
In general, this is one of the hardest teams to beat when it's aggressive. This frontcourt is tiring and both Clayton and Pullin have the ability to completely take over a game. It was why the Gators were my favorite future entering this tournament.
Auburn vs. Florida
Betting Pick & Prediction
If you don’t have a 20/1 future like I suggest on UF, I would consider backing the Gators ATS here.
Auburn has been able to take advantage of lesser teams, but its inconsistent guard play looms large.
While the Tigers were able to beat the lesser foes of South Carolina and Mississippi State, this is a much better Florida roster.
Expect a trench fight on the glass, an area where Auburn has struggled to contain in recent history. Given its struggles away from Neville Arena and the frontcourt of the Gators, I expect a coin-flip game.
Because of this, I would back UF down to +5, expecting it to make this a down-to-the-wire affair.
Back Florida’s frontcourt to make an impact here and possibly pull off the upset in the SEC championship.
