NCAAB Pick & Prediction for NC State vs Virginia

Tonight's ACC tournament matchup between the NC State Wolfpack and Virginia Cavaliers marks Round 3 between these two teams this season, with the victor claiming bragging rights and more.

Each team claimed victory on their home court and with this game taking place at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C., diving into the season-long metrics will provide us with the information we need to make the best bet in this showdown.

The Wolfpack enter this contest with a commendable offensive setup, marked by their 58th rank in adjusted efficiency. NC State’s ability to maintain possession (11th in TO%) showcases disciplined ball-handling and playmaking.

However, challenges arise with their shooting; a 187th rank in effective field goal percentage highlights inconsistencies in converting shots. Despite these hurdles, the Wolfpack's decent offensive rebounding (164th) has allowed them to generate plenty of second-chance points, a crucial element in tight contests.

Defensively, N.C. State shows room for improvement. Their 94th rank in adjusted efficiency indicates a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit that struggles particularly with limiting opponents' shooting efficiency (207th in eFG%).

While the Wolfpack are relatively adept at forcing turnovers (96th), their defensive rebounding (203rd) could leave them vulnerable to teams that excel at securing offensive boards. This defensive rebounding issue, coupled with a middle-tier free throw rate defense (172nd), could prove problematic against disciplined teams.

Want to find out what the best North Carolina sportsbook promos are now that North Carolina sports betting apps is live? Learn more.

The Cavaliers' season has been defined by their defensive prowess. Ranking sixth in adjusted defensive efficiency and 13th in effective field goal percentage allowed, the Cavaliers excel at stifling opponents' scoring opportunities.

Their defensive strategy effectively limits high-quality shots, as further evidenced by their solid turnover generation (47th). However, their defensive rebounding (136th) suggests potential vulnerability against teams that pursue offensive boards aggressively.

Offensively, Virginia faces significant challenges. Their 192nd rank in adjusted efficiency underscores a struggle to score efficiently, exacerbated by a 236th rank in effective field goal percentage.

The Cavaliers' difficulty in capitalizing on scoring opportunities is a glaring weakness, with their extremely low ranks in free throw rate (345th) and percentage (354th) further compounding their offensive woes. Despite this, their excellent ball security (5th in TO%) ensures they maximize their possessions, a critical factor in close matchups.

Given the statistical profiles and the nuances of this matchup, taking Virginia to cover -3.5 emerges as the best bet.

The Cavaliers' elite defensive capabilities are likely to stifle N.C. State's offense, particularly by exploiting the Wolfpack's shooting inefficiencies.

Virginia's offensive struggles are mitigated by their exceptional ability to protect the ball, reducing the likelihood of fast-break points and ensuring that every possession counts.

In a game that's expected to be a defensive grind, Virginia's superior ability to dictate the pace and efficiency of the contest positions them favorably to not only win, but also cover the spread — securing the third matchup between these two teams.

Take Virginia -3.5 and expect the Cavaliers to execute their defensive game plan to perfection.

Pick: Virginia -3.5