Michigan St vs. Washington Odds & Betting Predictions - January 17, 2026

The story right now surrounding Washington basketball is that one of their portal acquisitions, Desmond Claude, is stepping away from the team as he recovers from complications from a recent surgery. While this seems like a big blow, I don’t think it’s as significant as many people believe. The reason I say this is because Claude is a shot chucker. When he’s on, he’s unstoppable, but when he’s not, he can be a detriment to the team. Against a team like Michigan State, you need to play team basketball, not try to win the game one versus five. Claude was also a defensive liability. While losing 13 PPG certainly doesn’t help, I don’t think Washington will be overly affected by this news. With that said, I love this spot for Washington. First of all, traveling across the country is never easy, and trips to Seattle often produce wacky results. Michigan State has yet to truly spend time in true road environments this season. They’ve played only two true road games and are 1-1 in those. This will be their first trip to the West Coast. From a basketball standpoint, I remain lower on Michigan State than most, and the advanced metrics agree. ShotQuality is especially low on this team. Despite being ranked 12th in the country, their system grades the Spartans as the 34th best team with just the 52nd best offense. Their metrics clearly don’t like how Michigan State plays, projecting them as an 11-6 team compared to their current 15-2 record. Meanwhile, they have Washington ranked as the 30th best team in the country with the 18th best offense. This isn’t the end all be all, but this data is a useful way to identify teams that are being overvalued or undervalued. Michigan State has clearly been fortunate this season, which is why we have them 59th in our college basketball luck rankings, while Washington sits all the way down at 289th. Through six conference games, Michigan State’s offense remains concerning. They rank just ninth in offensive efficiency with the worst turnover rate in Big Ten play. Michigan State relies heavily on getting free points at the foul line, but Washington has been over 2% better than the D1 average in avoiding fouls. Despite an uninspiring 10-7 record, we still have Washington ranked as the 44th best team in the country. This team is due for major positive regression and consistently does the little things well. They take care of the basketball and rebound at a high level. Michigan State often makes teams beat themselves, but Washington is very sound in how they play. Washington has also faced a gauntlet of a schedule in Big Ten play, so I’m willing to give them some grace for their 2-4 start. This now becomes a massive home game that they desperately need to get back on track. Our model makes the fair spread just 1.57, with Michigan State barely scraping out a win. If Washington doesn’t beat themselves, I could easily see them pulling off the upset, but I’ll gladly take the points. Give me Washington to cover at home.

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