The 2026 NBA Playoffs continue tonight with Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs. While the spread and total offer plenty of intrigue, the best value for tonight’s action might actually lie in the player prop market.
Let's get into the breakdown of our NBA player props for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 1 on Monday, May 18.
NBA Player Props for Spurs vs Thunder Game 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 8:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
By Jim Turvey
I don't need to make this handicap long. Stephon Castle has already hit this over in seven of his 11 postseason games this year.
We know the Thunder's defensive scheme makes them prone to giving up a ton of threes in general, and they really like to target and sag off certain players in San Antonio's starting lineup to clog up the paint.
Castle is shooting a burning hot 44% in the postseason because he is getting a ton of open looks from deep. It's just a matter of rhythm; he spent most of the season finding his range, and now he finally seems comfortable letting it fly.
I honestly don't think this +140 price is going to last into Game 2, and it might even be a minus-number for most of this series. Grab it now while the value is still there.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+135)
Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop
Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points (-125)
By Joe Dellera
This projects to be a brutal scoring matchup for Chet Holmgren.
With Jalen Williams officially back in the lineup, we have to assume J-Dub is relatively healthy, which naturally reallocates a chunk of usage and field goal attempts away from Chet in the half-court.
More importantly, Chet historically struggles to establish his offense against San Antonio's unique interior length. He simply does not score efficiently in this specific matchup. He cleared this 16.5 threshold in only one of his four games against them this season, averaging a quiet 10.5 points per game overall.
Expect Holmgren to focus on defense, struggle to find clean looks inside, and stay under this total in Game 1.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 16.5 Points (-125)
Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop
Alex Caruso Over 12.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-113)
By Jim Turvey
This is exactly why Oklahoma City acquired Alex Caruso in the first place. They bubble-wrapped him the entire regular season just to let him go bananas right here in the Conference Finals.
Caruso's minutes have gone up slightly in the playoffs, but they are really going to get juiced up now. This is essentially the NBA Finals, so run him out there and get those points.
Caruso has the highest number of three-point attempts per 100 possessions this postseason of anyone playing in this entire series. He’s a streaky shooter on a solid run, averaging two makes per game at a 38% clip from deep.
Caruso is incredibly smart with his slips and off-ball cuts, finding gaps when defenses collapse on Shai. He is the ultimate gamer who hits obnoxious, timely buckets down the stretch.
I'm expecting a heavy workload for Caruso in this series.
Pick: Alex Caruso Over 12.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-113)
Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop
Stephon Castle Over 16.5 Points (-125)
By Joe Dellera
Stephon Castle has been great during this postseason run—just really consistent, continually getting to his spots, and working as one of San Antonio's primary offensive creators. He isn't facilitating quite as much as he did toward the end of the regular season, which is a bit surprising, but his scoring volume has been elite.
Oklahoma City's defense is probably going to try to go under screens, pack the lane, and dare him to beat them from the outside. But Castle has already proven he can find a massive amount of success against this Thunder scheme.
This season, he handled OKC's defense really well, averaging 19.8 points per game over four of the five matchups. The only game he missed was a February 4 outlier where everyone sat and he only logged 26 minutes.
In competitive games, he usually plays close to 40 minutes, providing a nice runway for tonight.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 16.5 Points (-125)
