The NBA playoffs resume this Monday, as two critical Game 4s take center stage tonight — and our NBA betting experts Joe Dellera and Jim Turvey have identified a total of four player prop picks showing significant value spanning both of today's contests: Pistons vs. Cavaliers and Thunder vs. Lakers.
Let's get into the breakdown of their NBA player prop picks and predictions for LeBron James, Jalen Duren and more on Monday, May 11.
NBA Player Prop Picks for Monday, May 11
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 10:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Player Prop Pick: Jalen Duren
Jalen Duren Under 25.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-105)
By Jim Turvey
I’m fading Jalen Duren because he's struggled all postseason, and we’re seeing the coaching staff finally react to it. His minutes are trending in the wrong direction; he saw about 34 minutes in each of the first two games, but that dropped to just 29 in Game 3.
It seems like Detroit is looking to find more minutes for Paul Reed because he simply brings more to the court that this team needs right now. Reed is more offensively minded and offers significantly better spacing than Duren, who tends to clog the paint.
When you look at the raw production, Duren is well under this 25.5 line for the playoffs as a whole. He’s averaging just 10 points, 9 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. If you isolate his road performance, it gets even worse: he’s sitting at about 10.7 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.5 assists. That is roughly a 20-point PRA average on the road.
In a must-win game where Detroit is looking to even the series, they cannot afford to mess around with an underperforming big man.
Pick: Jalen Duren Under 25.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-105)
Thunder vs. Lakers Player Prop Prediction: LeBron James
LeBron James 5+ First Quarter Points (-160)
By Joe Dellera
This is my favorite "tone-setter" of the night. If LeBron James is ever going to lay it all on the floor, it’s in a home game facing a sweep.
We saw this same scenario play out a couple of years ago against the Nuggets where he basically played the entire game and sat for about 20 seconds. He knows the Lakers have to establish an early lead to have any chance against OKC, and that starts in the first 12 minutes.
LeBron’s first-quarter rotation is consistently between 9 and 11 minutes, and he has scored at least four points in every single game this postseason.
He’s averaging 5.7 first-quarter points in these playoffs. Against OKC specifically this series, he has put up 12, 6, and 4 in the opening frame.
I expect LeBron to come out hot, try to set the pace, and look to bully his way to the rim early in Game 4 tonight.
Pick: LeBron James 5+ First Quarter Points (-160)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Player Prop Bet: Donovan Mitchell
Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points & Rebounds (-112)
By Joe Dellera
I’m going right back to the well with Donovan Mitchell, but I’m pivoting to the combo stat because the rebounding upside is too high to ignore. I’ve been on his points lately, but adding the boards here seems like a reasonable move when you see how hard he's hunting the ball.
In Game 3, Mitchell grabbed 10 rebounds on 17 chances. For a guard to convert at that rate is just insane. You can see the progression in this series: he went from four boards, to six, to 10.
The most frustrating part of this handicap is the Cavs continuing to run deep rotations. It is ridiculous to not play your franchise guy 40 minutes in a must-win playoff game. Mitchell can play more minutes down the stretch of this series.
Mitchell is averaging 36.2 PR against Detroit this season. He puts up roughly 30.8 points and 5.4 rebounds per game in this matchup.
Detroit is content to let him hunt floaters while they try to clamp the rest of the team.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 31.5 Points & Rebounds (-112)
Thunder vs. Lakers Player Prop Pick: Rui Hachimura
Rui Hachimura Over 18.5 Points & Rebounds (-106)
By Jim Turvey
I’m riding with Rui Hachimura again because the Thunder’s defensive scheme is practically a "Welcome" sign for him.
OKC seems content to let Rui fire away; they've decided they are okay with him shooting as long as it keeps the Lakers' primary scoring threats from getting into the paint.
The problem for OKC is that Rui has been great from beyond the arc this postseason, shooting 50% from three-point range. This isn't just a hot streak—it's a trend. In 40 career postseason games, he is shooting 52% from beyond the arc. That is an insane, "yellow-on-basketball-reference" type of stat.
Rui has knocked down 3+ three-pointers in all four games of this series, but I’m taking the Points + Rebounds combo here to protect against any shooting variance.
In a desperation spot where the Lakers will need all hands on deck to avoid the sweep, Rui is going to be on the floor plenty, and as long as the Thunder continue to dare him to shoot, going over this line shouldn't be a problem for him.
Pick: Rui Hachimura Over 18.5 Points & Rebounds (-106)
