The Los Angeles Lakers and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Game 1 of the NBA Western Conference Semifinals this Tuesday. Tipoff from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 8:30 p.m. ET, with the game airing live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 15.5-point home favorites over the Lakers in Game 1 tonight, with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -900 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Los Angeles is priced at +600 to pull off the road upset.
Let's break down my Lakers vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Game 1 on Tuesday, May 5.
Lakers vs Thunder Prediction, Pick
- Lakers vs Thunder pick: Lakers +15.5 (-105)
My Thunder vs. Lakers Game 1 betting prediction is on Los Angeles to cover the spread (+15.5). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Lakers vs Thunder Game 1 Odds
| Lakers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -105 | 214.5 -105o / -115u | +600 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -115 | 214.5 -105o / -115u | -900 |
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder NBA Playoffs Preview
Lakers Betting Preview: Still a Good Team
The Lakers face the toughest thing in today’s basketball world in this series, beating the Thunder — and they are still without Luka Doncic.
Oklahoma City is fresh off a comfy sweep of the Suns, waiting for their next sacrifice, and the Lakers will pay tribute.
Austin Reaves is back, but is there any way for the Lakers to hang with OKC? Trying to find ways for the Lakers to make up the gap between these two teams without Doncic is borderline impossible.
But, even with Doncic out, I make the spread for this game Thunder -9.76, nearly seven points off the spread.
The Lakers are still a good team. Their six-game series win over Houston proves that, no matter how flawed the Rockets were (especially without Kevin Durant).
They still have size and athleticism, they still have veteran guards. They still have Reaves — and most importantly, they still have LeBron James.
Thunder Betting Preview: Target the Team Total?
I'm not betting either side of the total in Game 1.
I project this significantly over, but I can’t get a good projection with the way the Lakers are playing defensively in the playoffs and without Doncic.
The Thunder's team total over is probably worth a look despite being correlated with the market overestimation that I previously mentioned.
Lakers vs Thunder Picks, Best Bets
Lakers +15.5 / Lakers Moneyline
This won’t be a heavy bet for me; it feels foolish. But I can’t get around the fact that the market has gotten ahead of itself and is dismissing what the Lakers still bring to the table — and JJ Redick’s ability to game plan for specific opponents.
The moneyline sprinkle is an example of "if you’re going to do something crazy, do it all the way crazy," but for only a small amount of risk.
Rui Hachimura 2+ Three-Pointers Made
The Thunder actually give up a ton of corner threes, the most valuable long-range shots in the league, but still manage to survive to hold an elite defense.
Hachimura takes and makes the most corner threes for LA; he shot 70% in the corners against the Rockets. He’s one guy the Thunder will live with shooting.
Marcus Smart Under 13.5 Points & Assists
Smart went under this in both games once Reaves returned. There’s just hardly any touches available for him with Reaves and James both available, and Smart transitions back into being a spot-up shooter and defender.
He’ll face the terrors of trying to dribble and pass vs. OKC’s swarming defense. It should be a low production game for him.
Lakers vs Thunder Game 1 Betting Predictions
- Lakers +15.5 (-105) / Lakers Moneyline (+600)
- Rui Hachimura 2+ Three-Pointers Made (-165)
- Marcus Smart Under 13.5 Points & Assists (-112)
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Lakers vs Thunder Betting Trends
