Bulls vs. Nuggets Odds & Betting Predictions - November 18, 2025

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Giddey averages 20.1 PPG in seven games with Ayo Dosunmu, but that number is inflated by a 32-point spike vs New York in a high-pace environment. Removing that outlier drops him closer to 18.2 PPG with 5 of 7 unders, which is a cleaner reflection of his scoring profile with good environments, but now Ayo is no longer limited. Denver is the exact opposite of those conditions. Under David Adelman, the Nuggets run a high-discipline PnR shell built on under coverage, funnel drops, and early nail help, designed to eliminate touches inside 8 feet. Jokic holds a firm drop around the free-throw line to erase floaters, Gordon shades from the nail to cut off the strong hand, and Brown’s screen navigation forces ball-handlers sideways rather than downhill. Denver systematically pushes PnR handlers into low-value pull-up twos, and the efficiency data backs it; they rank top-8 in opponent PnR ball-handler efficiency and routinely hold creators below expected shot quality. This becomes even more punitive when you factor in transition, which accounts for 33% of Giddey’s scoring. Denver ranks 4th-best in transition points allowed, driven by disciplined interior sprint rules, Gordon’s rim-protection angles, and Brown meeting handlers above the break rather than at the rim. They simply don’t concede early-clock lanes, forcing teams to beat them in the halfcourt, where Giddey is least efficient. Add in Chicago’s spacing limitations without Coby White, which encourages earlier collapses on his gathers, plus a 14.5-point spread in Denver, one of the worst blowout environments for guard minute stability, and the scoring pathway tightens further. Giddey will need elevated midrange shotmaking and an unlikely competitive script to reach 21. A 14–18 point outcome is the far more consistent expectation. #PlayerProps