Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+115 | 7 -120 / +105 | +1.5 -190 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-140 | 7 -120 / +105 | -1.5 +160 |
The New York Yankees look to stay hot as they take on Logan Gilbert and the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night at T-Mobile Park.
The Bronx Bombers have won three straight and 15 of their last 21 after a slow start to the season. The Mariners, for their part, have been playing better ball of late, too. They won six of seven before losing the series opener to the Yankees on Monday night.
The Mariners are favorites thanks to the pitching matchup, but there's reason to believe both pitchers might be locked and loaded on Tuesday, with runs at a premium.
New York Yankees
Nestor Cortes is certainly not having the season he'd want following his breakout 2022 campaign. The "nasty" lefty is sporting a 5.30 ERA and — despite a 4-2 record — has been one of the bigger disappointments in the Yankees' rotation so far.
However, there's reason to believe some of those struggles may have been due to bad luck. For one, Cortes is stranding barely over two-thirds of the runners he has allowed to reach base this season, notably below the league rate (71.7%) and well below his mark last season when he stranded 82.8% of runners.
Now that was a very high total, one arguably due for regression, except for the fact that Cortes has proven to be able to strand runners at an elite clip his entire career (78.0% even including this season). Given batters' struggles to line up his pitches, it does make a bit of sense.
Speaking of which, Cortes' numbers on Savant are definitely not what they were last season, but his xERA of 3.69 definitely shows he's been a bit unlucky. Batters have been able to lift the ball more and hit it a bit harder, but his sweet spot number remains basically the same as last season.
I'd be nervous against a team that can really punish lefties, but the Mariners have actually been poor in that split this season.
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners' wRC+ of 90 ranks 24th in baseball against southpaws this season, and they have as many holes in their swings versus lefties as any team outside of the Brewers and Twins.
However, they still may be able to hang around this game thanks to their own starting pitcher. Gilbert is part of a talented young rotation in Seattle, and some of the top peripherals out there have him as arguably the best of bunch.
Gilbert is sporting a 3.60 ERA to date this season, which is certainly respectable, but it's his xERA (2.88) and FIP (2.79) that really pop. The former ranks fourth among all 70 qualified starters this season, while the latter ranks eighth.
He has bumped his strikeout rate from middling (8.43 K/9) last season to elite this season (10.35), while also cutting down on his walks. He's getting a bit lucky on balls in play and in terms of stranding runners, but the bump in his groundball rate and lower hard hit rate help explain those strong numbers, at least a bit.
The Yankees are pretty split-proof this season, but the weather in Seattle is also conducive to a low-scoring game, with it being the third-lowest run scoring environment on the docket Tuesday night, per Ballpark Pal.
Yankees vs. Mariners Betting Pick
As you can probably guess, I'm going with the under. Bettors can get a plus number at under 7 (+105 at PointsBet), which is a key number.
This starting pitcher matchup looks like limited runs, and these are two of the top five bullpens by ERA this season. They are also two pens with their best arms rested and ready for action on Tuesday. Add it all together, and the under is definitely the angle here.
