Twins vs. Yankees Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -162 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -142 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +134 |
As in the past, Tyler Mahle has caught the brunt of some horrible luck. He's one of the best pitchers on the Twins when healthy, and his xERA has been far lower than his ERA the last two seasons.
Mahle faces Domingo Germán and the Yankees in the Big Apple on Saturday. Germán has not had a dazzling start to the season; he has not even made it through five complete innings, which can really strain a pitching staff. Between the two, Mahle is the superior starter.
Yes, the Yankees can hammer right-handed pitching, but Mahle can limit walks and he strikes out a fair number of hitters. The Minnesota bullpen can also contend with New York's, so Minnesota on the moneyline is the correct call in this duel. Continue reading for my preview on this Twins vs. Yankees clash.
Minnesota Twins
Mahle is a good pitcher. There is a reason the Twins went after him last season at the trade deadline … then he got injured.
However, now healthy, he looks to right the ship. So far, he owns a 4.09 ERA, but that doesn't tell the entire story. He ranks in the 78th percentile in strikeout rate and the 75th percentile in walk rate. His xERA is much more impressive at 2.27, so he's just been unlucky. Against the Marlins in his first outing, he only allowed one run in five strong innings, so this is more in line of what to expect from Mahle.
Minnesota's lineup does have its issues. Alex Kirilloff, Joey Gallo, Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer, Max Kepler and Gilberto Celestino are all on the injured list, which is why they just promoted Edouard Julien, who torched the Yanks on Thursday.
Julien, José Miranda, Ryan Jeffers, Donovan Solano and Byron Buxton all tout .320+ xwOBAs against right-handers this season — not too shabby with so many injured players. The Twins' 98 wRC+ against righties does not tell the entire story, either.
The Twins bullpen has been sharp as well. They rank fourth in xFIP at 3.67 with a 7.3% walk rate, so they have the artillery behind Mahle.
Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Jorge López, and Caleb Thielbar have been the most consistent options when leading, so look for a couple of these names to be featured on Saturday.
New York Yankees
As I mentioned earlier, Germán is worse than Mahle.
In two starts, he has only gone 7 2/3 innings. Much of this has to do with how inaccurate he is. He ranks in the 17th percentile in walk rate, which accrues pitches as the game wears on. He does rank in the 92nd percentile in Hard Hit Rate and average Exit Velocity and the 89th percentile in chase rate, but this won't necessarily prolong his outing. He may just strike out a batter or two more than most. He still owns a 5.66 xERA in the early going.
The Yankees, however, can hit righties better than the Twins. They have a team wRC+ of 112, which is tied for fifth in MLB entering Friday. They also have six batters with at least a .340+ xwOBA, so this is about as reliable as an offense can be. That said, outside of Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Gleybar Torres, this team has struggled with right-handed sliders, which Mahle throws often (33%+). This should keep New York's lineup off balance.
The Yankees bullpen is up there with the Twins. They have a 3.52 xFIP so far this season with a 28.9% strikeout mark. They can keep up with Mahle and the Minnesota relief corps. On the other hand, they will have to log more innings with an expected short start from Germán again.
Twins vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Mahle is the better of the two starters and the Minnesota lineup is a bit underrated, given the injuries they have had to work around. Both bullpens are even, but the Yankees will need more from their bullpen to take this one.
Pick: Twins ML +120 | Play to -110. |
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