The New York Yankees host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 19, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Yankees are favored by -137 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick: Under 9 (-120, play to Under 8)
My Blue Jays vs Yankees best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 9 100o / -120u | +114 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +144 | 9 100o / -120u | -137 |
- Blue Jays vs Yankees moneyline: Blue Jays +114, Yankees -137
- Blue Jays vs Yankees over/under: 9 (+100o / -120u)
- Blue Jays vs Yankees spread: Blue Jays +1.5 (-175), Yankees -1.5 (+144)
Blue Jays vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| RHP Dylan Cease (TOR) | Stat | RHP Will Warren (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 5-1 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 2.41/2.90 | ERA / xERA | 3.42/3.19 |
| 1.87/2.56 | FIP / xFIP | 3.09/2.84 |
| 24.9% | K-BB% | 14.9% |
| 47.0% | GB% | 44.4% |
| .342 | BABIP | .308 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 100 | Location+ | 107 |
Blue Jays vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
Dylan Cease has dropped his ERA over two runs from last season with a 4.8 point rise in strikeout rate (34.6%), despite a 0.4 point drop in swinging strike rate (15.2%) and only a marginal 1.8 point rise in CStr (15.8%).
His hard hit rate (37.3%) is only 0.1 points lower than last year, but he’s cut his barrels from 8.6% to 4.2% because he’s generating a career high 47 GB% (36.6% in 2025).
He’s throwing 0.8 mph harder (97.9), but using fewer fastballs (35.1% vs 41.2% last season) and sliders (44.4% to 35.4%) in exchange for more sinkers (9.3% vs 5.0%) and changeups (11.4% vs 1.1%).
RHBs are seeing almost the entirety of the sinker increase (14%), while LHBs are naturally getting the changeups (19%).
This has helped Cease drop his wOBA against LHBs from .323 to .263 and RHBs from .304 to .266.
Of course, you probably know that Cease was in a prime spot for positive regression regardless with his 69 LOB% and .320 BABIP last year. The former has risen to a more respectable 75.5% with the latter increasing to .342…wait, what?
How is that possible with the defensive upgrade? More on that later.
Cease’s BABIP has spiked as his ERA has dropped because only one of the five barrels he’s allowed has left the park.
The good news is that both are probably unsustainable and his 2.41 ERA is less than half a run below non-FIP estimators ranging from a 2.55 xFIP to a 2.88 xERA. As the home run rate rises, the BABIP should drop.
Cease’s estimators last year were mostly in the mid-threes, about a full run lower than his 4.55 ERA, so we certainly expected vast improvement, but now his indicators are more than half a run better too.
The one exception is pitch modeling, where Cease’s Bot ERA (3.81 to 3.86) and Pitching+ (108 both years) has remained stable.
His fastball marks have actually improved, but the newer pitches, while still helpful, grade subpar and pull the entire arsenal back into 2025 range.
Through Sunday, the Yankees have a 143 wRC+ at home this season and 112 vs RHP, while their projected lineup has a 119 over the last 30 days and a 112 wRC+ with a .202 ISO vs RHP since last season.
However, only Trent Grisham (21%), Ben Rice (17.7%) and Cody Bellinger (15.1%) strike out less than a quarter of the time against RHP over that last span and none of the projected bottom four in the lineup (Ryan McMahon, Spencer Jones, Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells) exceed a 92 wRC+ (vs RHP) over that stretch.
By run value (which has certain faults), the Yankees are the second best offense in the league against sliders (0.73 wSL/C), but also by run value, the slider has been a monster pitch for Cease (2.9 RV/100), where I’d expect him to have the edge and matchup well with the Yankees.
The key may be avoiding fastballs when facing Judge, which appears to be his largest run value deficit against this lineup.
Still, a four or five pitch Cease is going to be much more difficult for the Yankees to negotiate than a two pitch Cease might have been.
Cease has been a bit below average at holding runners, who have attempted on 2% of their 343 steal opportunities against him.
However, Brandon Valenzuela has been a pleasant surprise in gunning down 35% of would be base stealers, almost double his expected rate (18%) and tying him for the league lead with four Catchers CS Above Average, according to Statcast. Tyler Heineman would be a dropoff to near neutral in that department.
With Jose Caballero injured, the Yankees are lesser base stealing threats with Jazz Chisholm (12 SB) and Cody Bellinger (5 SB) their only positives in the Base Running Runs category, though Ben Rice (-1) is also their only negative base runner with everyone else remaining at 0.
Back to the defense mentioned above, the Blue Jays are only marginally above average with three Runs Prevented and OAA, when they probably projected to be one of the top defenses in the league. Injuries may have played into that, as the projected lineup is at just a 6 Fielding Run Value, which is also Valenzuela’s FRV on his own.
That means the rest of the defense (at least the one we expect out there Tuesday) has been break even, but with only Jesus Sanchez (-1) and Ernie Clement (-3) below average.
Despite their closer, Jeff Hoffman, losing his job in April, the Blue Jays remain the sixth best bullpen by estimators over the last 30 days (3.45 FIP/3.87 xFIP/3.77 SIERA) because his replacement, Louis Varland, has been elite.
Despite a close game on Monday, both Varland and setup man Tyler Rogers had the night off and should be available on Tuesday.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
While Will Warren’s 3.42 ERA sits almost exactly a run above his opponent, all estimators have been below it, ranging only as high as a 3.17 xERA.
In fact, counter to Cease, Warren’s pitch modeling is best on the board (2.09 Bot ERA, 118 Pitching+) and even best in the league. His Bot ERA is a quarter run better than any qualified pitcher and his Pitching+ sits behind only a pair of Jacob’s. Guess which ones.
Throwing half a mph harder (93.9 mph), Warren’s pure stuff has improved, but his BotCmd and Location+ grades have jumped eight and 10 points, respectively, to vault him into rare territory.
The actual results have been nearly as good. Warren was bombed by the Rangers for a season high six runs last time out, representing one-third of the earned runs he’s allowed this season and his only outing with more than two.
He bounced right back, just a single out from a two-run quality start last time out in Baltimore with both runs coming in his final inning.
Warren has improved his ground ball rate (2.3 points to 44.4%), hard hit rate (3.9 points to 42.3%), barrel rate (3.7 points to 7.1%) and K-BB (8.8 points to 23.7%) in a breakout season.
You may wonder if his 2.95 K/SwStr is sustainable with just a 10.1 SwStr%, but his 20.4 CStr% also ties for the major league lead with another New York pitcher (NL), which I’ll leave you to guess as well.
Not too many pitchers can carry a CStr% that high through the long run, but his pitch modeling grades suggest it may be possible.
Warren will come at RHBs with fastballs, sinkers and sweepers between 28% and 36% of the time. LHBs get the heater 44% of the time, but then he’ll mix it up with sweepers, sinkers and changeups 14% to 19% of the time.
Kazuma Okamoto may be his biggest matchup concern, faring well against fastballs and sliders. George Springer and Valenzuela have also hit the slider well, while Vlad Jr. hits the entire arsenal well across the board.
Still, there are more negative (good) than positive pitch run value matchups for Warren here and even the positive ones above don’t really jump off the page.
Concerning the Toronto offense on a team level, it’s been a significant disappointment, even considering the injuries. They have just an 81 road wRC+ and 92 vs RHP. The projected lineup has a mere 99 wRC+ over the last month, but has earned a 111 wRC+ with a .171 ISO vs RHP since last season.
The Blue Jays still don’t strike out a lot (projected lineup average 19.9% vs RHP since 2025), but Valenzuela (24.5%), Gary Varsho (25.3%) and Okamoto (32.2%) have been prone.
Like the bottom of the projected Yankee order, the last three for Toronto (Clement, Andres Gimenz, Valenzuela) are all below an 85 wRC+ in that same split.
Nobody has elected to run on Warren in 298 opportunities to do so. His three Net Bases Prevented is tied for third best. Austin Wells has not been as good, throwing out just one of 10 base stealing attempts (-1 CSAA). J.C. Escarra has been even worse (6% CS, -2 CSAA).
The Blue Jays have an American League low 16 steals and probably won’t pick that up against Warren. Andres Gimenez leads the team with five steals. The projected lineup combines for -3 BRR with nobody in positive territory.
While the Yankee defense is middle of the league (1 Run Prevented, 2 OAA), the projected defense has accumulated seven FRV with three each from Bellinger, Chisholm and Wells and only Rice (-1) and Volpe (-1) grading negatively.
The Yankee bullpen is one spot ahead of the Jays with the fifth best estimators over the last month (3.52 FIP/3.77 xFIP/3.70 SIERA).
However, both David Bednar and setup man Fernando Cruz have worked back to back days and three of four. Their availability for Tuesday is in doubt.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
The latest Statcast Park Factors (3 yr) have Yankee Stadium as a top 10 run environment (104 Run Factor) after playing more neutrally for several years.
The surprise may be that it plays better for RH power (122 HR Factor) than LH power (114), but that could be deceiving with the frequency with which Judge goes the other way and it a top quarter of the league mark regardless.
With a forecast in the 80s and a near 10 mph wind out towards left, this is certainly a hitter friendly environment on Tuesday night.
However, I’m still going to side with the under (currently 9 at DraftKings) and I believe the logic is sound, along with a favorable projection.
We have a pair of starting pitchers who have pitched at an All Star quality so far, each with estimators averaging below three.
While the Yankee offense is plenty dangerous, they strike out a ton. It doesn’t matter what the weather is if there’s no contact and they’re facing one of the premier power pitchers in the league, one projected to lead the league in strikeouts.
Meanwhile, the Toronto offense has struggled greatly on the road and been subpar against RHP.
Both defenses are above average, while the Blue Jays are a below-average baserunning team.
Both bullpens have been top quarter of the league over the last month too, but I’d certainly understand if you’d want to leave the Yankee bullpen out of this with their availability issues and only play a five inning total.
In fact, I also have a lean in this game on the Yankees F5 if you can get it around -115 or better (currently -122 at FanDuel).
Pick: Under 9 (-120, play to Under 8)
