The Detroit Tigers (16-6) host the San Diego Padres (13-9) on Monday, April 21, 2025. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FS1.
Randy Vasquez will toe the slab for the visitors opposite Keider Montero, and there's a good chance that will mean plenty of offense for both sides.
Find my Padres vs Tigers prediction in my MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Padres vs Tigers Prediction
- Padres vs Tigers pick:F5 Over 4.5 (-115) | Play to -125
My Padres vs Tigers best bet is the First Five Over 4.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Tigers Odds, Lines
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +124 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -148 |
Padres vs Tigers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Randy Vasquez (SD) | Stat | RHP Keider Montero (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 1.74/5.71 | ERA /xERA | 9.00/5.15 |
| 4.29/6.21 | FIP / xFIP | 8.23/2.45 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.80 |
| 0.57% | K-BB% | 29.2% |
| 37.5% | GB% | 33.3% |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 93 | Location+ | 100 |
Ducey’s Padres vs Tigers Preview
Padres Betting Preview: Concerns for Vasquez Away From Petco
It's been a bit of a struggle for Randy Vasquez away from the friendly confines of his home park in San Diego.
On the road last season, he finished with a 6.07 ERA, which came in around three runs higher than his ERA in the reverse split. It's no surprise, given the righty has pitched to plenty of contact in the air since the beginning of 2024.
Vasquez has opened up the year with an impressive 1.74 ERA in four starts, but his WHIP stands at a brutal 1.35. He's walked 16.3% of the batters he's seen next to a minuscule 9.3% strikeout rate.
Even on contact, it's not like Vasquez has been comfortable, sporting a .262 Expected Batting Average and .479 Expected Slugging.
Now, the walks weren't a huge concern last year, so perhaps there's some room for growth here. Strikeouts have always been hard to come by for Vasquez, however.
Also, while his sweeper has produced some good-enough results, he's still failed to locate it, and his cutter — carrying a .350 xBA — isn't effective enough to help his breaking stuff play up.
Tigers Betting Preview: Bad Matchup for Montero
Keider Montero has started just one game for the Tigers this season, and it didn't go well. He surrendered three homers in a loss to the Milwaukee Brewers and was charged with five runs on eight hits over five frames.
The good news was that he struck out eight and walked one in that outing, and that followed a strong start to the season in the strikeout department down in Triple-A.
Between the two levels, Montero has now struck out 19 in just 14 2/3 innings, something that's encouraging given his strikeout numbers were always high until he arrived in the big leagues a year ago.
Montero has also begun pitching to more ground balls this year, which you want to see out of a player who leans on the sinker often.
The jury is still very much out on Montero's ability to produce punch outs, though.
On Monday night, he'll have to face one of the most disciplined teams in baseball, which will be a challenge. San Diego has struck out in a league-best 17.2% of its plate appearances and is hitting .276 to lead the league. It also ranks second in OPS versus ground-ball pitchers.
Padres vs Tigers Prediction, Betting Analysis
While I'm generally intrigued by Montero, you never want to be hoping for a bundle of punch outs going into a start against the team that strikes out at the lowest clip in the league.
In his lone start this season, we saw what happened to Montero, even with eight of his 15 outs coming on strikeouts. Now he'll have his hands full with a team that's hit for the highest average and has married that with an acceptable .147 Isolated Power.
On the flip side, while Vasquez should see some slight reprieve inside a pitcher-friendly park in Detroit, it's hard to stake any faith in him with the way the Tigers have hit for power and taken walks.
They're just outside the top 10 in walk rate and have done damage against righties for about the last calendar year. Nothing should change here — even if Kerry Carpenter is held out of the lineup.
This is a classic case where the likelihood of one starter totally blowing up is high, putting the total in play.
Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (-115)
Moneyline
The sharp money is hitting the Tigers here, though it's somewhat surprising given San Diego's offense should make life incredibly difficult on Montero.
With that said, the Padres are just 3-3 straight up as road underdogs.
Run Line (Spread)
The Tigers are an impressive 5-2 to the run line as home favorites this year and have covered in three of their last four. San Diego is 0-3 to the run line in its last three.
Over/Under
The sharps are targeting the under in this one, which makes some sense given it's cashed in four out of the Tigers' last five.
