On Monday, two of MLB's young stars will face off for the first time when Elly De La Cruz and the Reds take on Paul Skenes and the Pirates at PNC Park. The Pirates are returning home off a 3-3 road trip, taking two of three in Colorado over the weekend.
Meanwhile, the Reds lost two of three in Milwaukee to the division-leading Brewers, who have an eight-game edge on both the Reds and Pirates. Tonight, I'm backing Skenes and the Pirates to gain ground tonight.
Read below for my Reds vs Pirates MLB parlay on Monday, June 17.
Reds vs Pirates MLB Parlay: SGP Picks
- First Inning Result – Tie (-125)
- Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Pirates ML (-188)
Parlay Odds: +304 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
First Inning Result – Tie (-125)
Reds vs. Pirates | 6:40 p.m. ET, FS1
The 2023 No. 1 overall pick, Paul Skenes, does not have much longer to be regarded as a top prospect as he will surpass 50 innings within his next three starts. He may just graduate to Pirates' ace, a title he might already have. Skenes has dominated opponents right from the jump. Through his first six starts, Skenes has yet to allow to a run. For that matter, he has allowed just one hit and has struck out 12 of 19 batters he has faced.
Meanwhile, Reds' starter Carson Spiers will be making his first start of the season and just the third of his career, but he has been no slouch himself. In his last outing, Spiers' relieved starter Frankie Montas' in the second inning and pitched 5 and 2/3 innings while scattering four hits and punching out seven. He has a 2.33 ERA in 19 and 1/3 innings in five appearances this season.
Additionally, there has not been a run scored in the first inning of 79% of Pirates' games and 72% of Reds' games this season. I don't expect a run in the first inning again tonight. However, I am playing the tie instead of NRFI (-120), because it offers much protection despite virtually the same odds. If Reds were to score a run off Skenes in the top half, the inning could result in a tie if the Pirates also score one. If for instance, Elly De La Cruz homers off Skenes, then NRFI is a loss immediately.
Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Reds vs. Pirates | 6:40 p.m. ET, FS1
I mentioned that Skenes is striking out 63% of the batters he has faced in the first inning. Against the Reds, his dominance may extend well past the first. Cincinnati is fifth in strikeout rate over the last 30 days and third this season. De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelairo, Jacob Hurtubise, Jonathan India and Will Benson all have a strikeout of 21.1% or above.
Meanwhile, Skenes has a 35.4% strikeout rate against just a 4.6% walk rate and .205 expected batting average. He had seven strikeouts in four innings in his debut against the Cubs. Since, he has recorded eight strikeouts in four of his last five starts. He has pitched five innings in each of them and six innings in four of the five.
If Skenes goes six innings tonight, there is a strong chance that at least eight of the 18 outs to come via strikeouts, and he might even be able to crack double digits in this matchup. Skenes is listed at +230 for 10 strikeouts tonight, and that would boost the odds of this parlay to +601, if you want to get riskier.
Pirates ML (-188)
Reds vs. Pirates | 6:40 p.m. ET, FS1
While Spiers has pitched well coming into this outing, the Pirates have the advantage Skenes on the mound. The Reds have scored six runs in his last four appearances. Meanwhile, the Pirates have scored six runs in five of Skenes' six starts and all three at PNC Park. The Pirates are 5-1 in his starts while Skenes is 3-0 himself.
The Pirates' hitters seem to enjoy having Skenes' on the mound, particularly Andrew McCutchen. The 37-year old has hit four of his 10 home runs in Skenes' first four starts. The streak ended against the Dodgers, but he is hitting .360 with seven runs batted in when Skenes pitches.
Additionally, Nick Gonzales enters tonight's game riding a seven-game hitting game and he is hitting .311 on the year. Bryan Reynolds has doubled that with a 14-game hitting streak. This trio will be among the Pirates hitters sparking Pittsburgh's offense tonight.
