Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-185 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | +1.5 -130 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+150 | 8.5 -120o / +100u | -1.5 +105 |
Phillies vs Padres odds for Wednesday have the Phillies as -159 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5.
The starting pitching matchup for the Phillies vs. Padres series finale is a good one as right-hander Matt Waldron is set to take the mound for San Diego, while Philadelphia counters with left-hander Ranger Suarez.
For my Phillies vs. Padres prediction, I will be looking at the total.
Philadelphia Phillies
Suarez is the odds-on favorite to win the NL Cy Young, and for good reason. The southpaw is 10-1 with a commanding 1.77 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP through 14 starts.
His underlying metrics are just as dominant as he ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against San Diego, a team Suarez is 3-0 against through six career meetings with a 2.16 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.
There were eight of fewer total runs scored in five of those six outings.
Following Suarez is a bullpen that is capable of closing out games. Philadelphia's relief staff ranks in the top 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
San Diego Padres
San Diego's bullpen is nearly as good, ranking 11th in FIP and 10th in xFIP … though that may not matter given the starting pitching duel we are likely to witness.
A poor start to the campaign blurs Waldron's 3.66 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past seven starts, posting a 3-2 record with a stellar 1.91 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over that stretch.
There were eight or fewer total runs scored in five of those seven outings.
Based on his underlying metrics, that success is likely to continue as the right-hander ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in xERA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
There is no denying that the Padres boast a stellar lineup, which is part of the reason this total is set at 8.5. However, they also possess a fade-worthy .213 BA, .280 SLG and .231 wOBA through 78 combined career plate appearances against Suarez.
Phillies vs. Padres
Betting Pick & Prediction
Again, both of these lineups are tremendous, which is why the total is set so high despite what should be an elite pitching matchup. So, in a battle of strength versus strength, who wins?
In terms of where I find the betting value, I want to ride the hot hands of each of these starting pitchers.
It's rare to find a total of 8.5 with the leading Cy Young candidate on the mound, and I think it is advantageous to take advantage of that number. Speaking of which, we are catching a particularly good line on the under (-105) via FanDuel, which is 10 cents shorter than the rest of the market at the time of writing.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel | Play to -110)
