The Chicago Cubs (17-11) host the Philadelphia Phillies (14-13) on Sunday, April 27. First pitch for Sunday Night Baseball from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Find my Phillies vs Cubs prediction and Sunday Night Baseball best bet below, as well as the latest MLB odds, probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction & Pick
- Phillies vs Cubs pick: Phillies moneyline +105 (Play to -105)
My Phillies vs Cubs best bet is on the Phillies moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Cubs Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -204 | 8 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Phillies vs Cubs Moneyline: Phillies +105, Cubs -125
- Phillies vs Cubs Total: 8 (-110/-110)
- Phillies vs Cubs Spread: Phillies +1.5 (-204), Cubs -1.5 (+170)
- Phillies vs Cubs Best Bet: Phillies Moneyline +105
Phillies vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Aaron Nola (PHI) | Stat | RHP Jameson Taillon (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 6.43 / 4.66 | ERA /xERA | 4.74 / 4.47 |
| 4.89 / 3.36 | FIP / xFIP | 4.46 / 3.87 |
| 1.61 | WHIP | 1.2 |
| 15.9% | K-BB% | 15.2% |
| 48.8% | GB% | 31.6% |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 105 | Location+ | 109 |
Phillies vs Cubs Preview, Sunday Night Baseball Prediction
Phillies Betting Preview
Nola has been one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball throughout his excellent 11-year career, and his horrible start to the season has certainly been quite surprising. He holds a career ERA of 3.75 and has been a workhorse in handling close to 200 innings in the majority of his big-league campaigns.
Nola will be looking to avoid becoming the first Phillies starter to lose their first six starts of the season since 1945 in this matchup. He's allowed 1.93 HR/9 this season and stranded just 66.5% of base runners. His lack of velocity has been a more apparent issue than in previous years, as when he's missed his spots, it's often resulted in the worst possible outcomes.
He holds an xERA of 4.66 and an xFIP of 3.36, as well as a K-BB% of 15.9 so far this season. Pitch metrics are still fairly high on Nola, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 103 and a Pitching+ rating of 107.
While Nola has been much less effective than in years past, his underlying profile suggests he should find improved results the rest of the way. It hasn't helped matters that he has faced a tough slate of opponents, as based off current wRC+ ratings versus right-handed pitchers, the New York Mets are currently the worst lineup that Nola has faced.
The current Phillies roster core is known for being a tightly knit group, and they will surely be desperate to get their guy Nola some run support in this matchup and help him get off the schneid. They snapped their five-game losing skid with a 10-run performance in Saturday's matchup but have been somewhat disappointing at the plate overall.
Philadelphia holds a wRC+ of 102 versus right-handed pitching this season but holds the best BB/K ratio in baseball and has made soft contact only 14.4% of the time. The Phillies ranked 13th in wRC+ versus righties last season, and considering that all of the key pieces from last year's team are still in the mix and their process still looks sound, they should be due for better offensive results moving forward.
Cubs Betting Preview
While part of Nola's ugly start has come down to the quality of opponents he has faced, life won't get any easier when he tries to tame a potent Cubs lineup in this matchup.
Kyle Tucker's addition to the lineup has been an even greater success than expected early on, as he has slugged .600 and already racked up 25 RBIs. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong both entered the season as potential candidates to offer improved production at the plate, and that has been the case, as they are slugging .523 and .568, respectively.
The Cubs also had fairly bad luck with injuries in 2024 and were likely to find some improvement this season simply by enjoying playing with a healthier lineup.
The Cubs currently rank sixth with a wRC+ rating of 119 versus right-handed pitching and hold an OPS of .776.
Gonna be another chilly day of baseball for the Phillies and Cubs, forecast for mid-40s at first pitch with just as much, if not more wind blowing in from left field as yesterday, when it suppressed any potential home runs to left and left-center.
— Corey Seidman (@CSeidmanNBCS) April 26, 2025
Aside from a horrible performance in his first start of the season versus the high-powered Arizona Diamondbacks in which he allowed six earned runs, Taillon has had a very steady start to the campaign. He holds an xERA of 4.47 and an xFIP of 3.87 and has pitched to an ERA of 3.22 over his last four outings.
His K-BB% is up from last year to 15.2, and he's also allowed less hard contact in his first five outings of the season. His pitch metrics have also improved, as he holds a Pitching+ rating of 104 compared to his 2024 mark of 100.
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction, Moneyline Pick
Nola has been one of the most consistent starters in baseball over the last several seasons; over the last two seasons, betting the Phillies to win in each of his starts would have yielded a +5.1% ROI. He does look to be a lesser pitcher than we have typically seen, but there are a number of underlying statistics that suggest we have probably seen the worst of it, and tonight's conditions should help keep fly balls from leaving the park.
I'm quite high on both of these lineups and believe both will be among the league's most productive units this season. Obviously that's an easier point to make regarding the Cubs right now, but this Phillies core has had plenty of success over the last several seasons, and I'm not expecting them to fall off anytime soon.
Most bettors may not be overly interested in trying to catch the falling knife with Nola here, but at +100 we seem to be getting the right price to do so. Perhaps this will prove to be a foolish take, but I still believe Nola can outperform Taillon this season, and getting him and the high-powered Phillies as underdogs looks to provide a good opportunity to buy-low.
Pick: Phillies Moneyline (Play to -105)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Phillies to win at even money looks to provide value.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Phillies to cover -1.5 at +155 could be another strong option in this game if you want to get a little greedy and really bank on the idea that Nola will get right.
Over/Under
The Action Network app is reporting that 84% of the bets on totals in this game are on the over, which is not overly surprising given that a total of 8 does look low considering the offenses in this game and the high ERAs of both starters.
The underlying statistics suggest both starters are due for improved results moving forward, though, and this game could potentially feature quite favorable conditions for run suppression.
Phillies vs Cubs Betting Trends
Phillies Trends
- Phillies are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Phillies are 6-8 in their road games against the spread
- Phillies hitters have chased 40% of pitches out of the zone with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%
Cubs Trends
- Cubs are 2-3 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 11 of Cubs' 15 last games at home
- Cubs hitters have a swing rate of just 24% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%
Cubs vs Phillies Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Wrigley Field in Chicago, Ill. |
| Date: | Sunday, April 27 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
Phillies vs Cubs Injuries
Cubs Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| RHP Tyson Miller | Left hip (15-day IL) |
| RHP Javier Assad | Oblique strain (15-day IL) |
| RHP Ryan Pressly | Right knee (day to day) |
| LHP Justin Steele | Left elbow (15-day IL) |
Phillies Injuries
| Player | Status |
|---|---|
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez | Left forearm (day to day) |
| LHP Ranger Suarez | Lower back (15-day IL) |
| OF Brandon Marsh | Right hamstring (10-day IL) |
