Our MLB betting experts hopped on the Payoff Pitch Podcast to detail Monday's best bets for Pirates vs. Brewers and Royals vs. Mariners.
B.J. Cunningham and Sean Zerillo are both eyeing moneyline bets, so continue reading for their picks and best bets below.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:40 p.m. | Brewers -145 |
  | 9:40 p.m. | Mariners -146 |
Brewers -145 vs. Pirates
7:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Mitch Keller of the Pirates simply hasn't been nearly as impressive as last season.
His Strikeout-Walk Rate has dipped 5.5%, with a dip in velocity and a rise in hard contact. His expected ERA has risen to 4.6 while sitting closer to 4.2 last year. His metrics and indicators simply show a lack of form.
The Pirates bats also show huge offensive splits facing lefties compared to righties. They are 30th in the MLB against right-handed pitchers with 74 WRC+ as opposed to 110 against lefties.
Finally, because of Paul Skenes' first start and that crazy inning with the rain delay and a flurry of walks, the Pirates had to dig so deep into their bullpen and have many pitchers who have thrown multiple innings across consecutive days.
I'm betting the Brewers up to -145 on the moneyline, and I had this projected at -155.
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Mariners -146 vs. Royals
9:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
George Kirby will pitch against Brady Singer, and I think Kirby has arguably the best command of his entire arsenal among any pitcher in baseball.
He has an incredibly low Walk Rate and for two straight seasons now has hung around one walk per nine innings. He's been unlucky this season with a 4.1 ERA and an expected ERA closer to 3.3.
Because of his strong command, he moves his pitches all around the zone to beat guys with finesse as opposed to a combination of high velocity and elite stuff.
He has pitched much better at home and is facing a pitcher who is a negative-regression candidate right now. Singer is the opposite with a 2.36 ERA and a 4.02 expected ERA with bad numbers on both his fastball and sinker. The Mariners will also have a significant edge in the bullpen, so I projected this all the way to Mariners -172 on the moneyline.
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