Padres vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
| Padres Odds | -110 |
| Phillies Odds | -110 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
For a playoff game with the kind of magnitude of an NLCS Game 4, a starting pitching matchup between Mike Clevinger and Bailey Falter certainly inspire some hope for each of these talented offenses.
Here's a same game parlay geared around exactly that.
The Parlay (+1659):
- San Diego Padres Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 First 5 Innings (+857 without)
- Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases
Same-Game Parlay – Padres vs Phillies
San Diego Padres Moneyline
This series has been somewhat chaotic in that outside of Game 1's victory for the Phillies with Zach Wheeler on the mound, it's kind of been the less logical team finding a way to claim victory.
Many counted the Padres out in Game 2 after that loss, with a pitching matchup of Aaron Nola and Blake Snell setting up to be a tough spot for the Padres to avoid 0-2.
Suddenly after finding victory in that game, San Diego seemed to be in with a good shot to claim a 2-1 series lead Friday, in a starting pitching matchup between Joe Musgrove, who was brilliant in the do-or-die Game 5 of the Wild Card Round, versus Ranger Suarez.
Yet the Phillies found some surprising offense from Musgrove, and Suarez held strong, and I think the important takeaway is that the margins are really close right now.
Today's contest features the worst starting pitching matchup to date in this series, and will hopefully provide us with a high-event contest to help get these parlay legs covered.
Falter dialed it in to an extent down the stretch this season, but still features a below average chase rate, which is not surprising considering his spin rates and QOPA.
His unique delivery could be of note in this spot, yet his xERA of 4.63 is still far from encouraging, and his expected rates actually regressed over his last two starts.
We have seen the Padres take up far better approaches versus left-handed pitching down the stretch this season. That was always part of the plan with their notable deadline acquisitions of Brandon Drury, Juan Soto and Josh Bell, even if Soto has not lived up to expectations.
The Padres' improved play versus left-handed pitching has carried over to the postseason, when we consider that San Diego earned this spot in this series due in large to it's success against elite lefties like Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw.
Clevinger does not inspire much cause for optimism with road ERA, FIP, and xFIP ratings all above 5, but I feel it's possible the Padres' bullpen advantage could be meaningful in this spot, as well as the fact that San Diego could easily end up roughing up Falter early on.
Philadelphia Phillies First Five Innings +1.5
This part of our SGP does not go hand-in-hand with the Padres moneyline by any means, which is why I will include that it moves the price from +857 to +1659.
My thinking is that something like 3-2 or 2-2 through the first 5 innings is very reasonable, and then ideally the strength of Padres bullpen is going to show through and allow them to steal a close game.
Depending on what book you are building this on I believe playing it as Phillies First 5 Innings +0.5 for massive odds, or even taking a swing on Phillies to win first 5 and lose the game holds merit as well as a super long-shot, and looking for the storyline of a Phillies bullpen implosion.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases
As you can tell, I am expecting a reasonable amount of offense in this contest, and hoping for some action is a big part of my angle on this SGP.
Therefore we can't leave off Kyle Schwarber, who should be in a great spot to continue his recent surge Saturday.
Schwarber started the postseason off with an 0-for-14 stretch at the plate, but as you would expect for a player of his caliber, has seemingly righted the ship with a lot of strong at-bats since that point, leading to a 5-for-13 tear (.386 BA) with two home runs.
Left-handed batters have managed a hard-hit rate of 35% versus Clevinger this season, which is a problem in itself.
But beyond that, Schwarber has been one of the very best in the league versus right-handed pitching yet again this season, with a slug-rate of .566 throughout 440 at-bats.
Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases
This one might not entirely run along with the numbers, as Soto is having his worst season to date versus left-handed pitching by a decent margin, but it has been clear his at-bats have been far better this postseason.
Soto has managed hard-hit balls in 21 of 39 at-bats this postseason (53.85% hard-hit rate), including 18 with exit velocities over 100 mph.
That has come against starters far tougher than Falter, and I think Soto is going to stick with a strong process and find some hard contact again today.
