Padres vs. Mets Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -192 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-142 | 7.5 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +158 |
The New York Mets will look to extract some revenge from the San Diego Padres in a rematch of last season's NL Wild Card series, which San Diego won 2-1. Max Scherzer dropped Game 1 of that series to Yu Darvish, and the two are set to battle again at Citi Field Monday.
Scherzer has had a shaky start to the season with a 1-1 record and 6.35 ERA in his initial two outings, and will be feeling immense pressure to bounce back and get his 5-5 Mets moving in the right direction.
Darvish suffered through some command issues in his initial start versus Arizona, but was able to avoid meaningful damage, allowing just 1 ER in 5 IP.
How will the two fare on Monday night? Continue reading for my Padres vs. Mets preview and game pick.
San Diego Padres
San Diego's high-powered offense has come flying out of the gates with five runs scored per game, including a dominant 10-2 victory last night on Sunday Night Baseball versus Atlanta.
The Padres have hit to an xwOBA of .340 and an xSLG rate of .448 in 10 games so far, which are both top-third marks and suggest they should continue to be a solid offensive side.
FanGraphs projects the Padres to put up 4.66 runs per game the rest of the season, which is only a slight drop off from the current pace. That's not surprising considering the names on board, and if Fernando Tatis Jr. is able to return in top form the Padres have an offense that looks downright scary.
Nelson Cruz has been a surprisingly strong addition thus far, and it seems possible that his minor eye surgery is making a significant difference in his ability to produce.
Cruz will likely be out of the lineup today and Matt Carpenter should replace him in a matchup against the right-handed Scherzer.
The Padres hit to a wRC+ of just 101 last season versus right-handed pitching last year, but should feature a more balanced offense this season with a full year of Juan Soto.
Darvish's stuff still rates well relative to the rest of baseball. His velocity and spin-rates offered no concern his first time out, as his fastball sat at 94.5 mph. His command was a larger concern and ultimately one run was a very lucky version of the game with an xERA of 4.71.
Batters have hit just .158 off of his fastball since the 2021 season, which is the best among starters who have pitched 130 innings over that span. If Darvish's fastball velo remains where it is, his breaking stuff should continue to play very effectively, and even at age 36 he has a convincing arsenal of pitches.
ZiPS projects Darvish with a 3.91 ERA this season, which would be about a half-run below his xERA of 3.49 from 2022.
New York Mets
With Justin Verlander sidelined, the pressure on Scherzer to find better form is immense, and he is being offered a tremendous spot to help quell Mets fans concerns Monday and quiet a red-hot Padres offense.
Scherzer was still projected to pitch to a sub 3.45 ERA by most projection models, outside of just THE BAT, which was the most bearish projecting at 3.78 ERA.
To this point, Scherzer has struggled mightily to an xERA of 5.89 in a small two-game sample size, but the vast majority of the actual damage has still come in two blowup innings. He relied heavily upon his off-speed stuff as the game wore on, as his fastball was lacking a little pop.
Adjusting to the pitch clock has seemingly been part of the struggle for Scherzer, and it will be interesting to see if in time he is able to make adjustments and find better results.
Padres vs. Mets Betting Pick
Both of these starters look far more mortal than we have seen previously in their careers, and are seemingly being given a lot of market respect still looking at today's first five totals.
It's still scary to fade Scherzer in any capacity, but it seems realistic to think that he could take some steps backward this season and that he is not adjusting well to the pitch clock. Seeing him entirely shutout the Padres' red-hot offense would be a surprise, for sure.
Darvish was lucky to not find worse results last time out, and featured some very concerning command issues.
A 78 degree night with winds blowing out to left should make hitting conditions very reasonable, and it seems likely that one or both of these teams can find some meaningful offense early on despite the legendary names on the marquee.
At -126, the first five under 3.5 is playable, and I would bet it down to -135.
