Padres vs. Braves Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +100 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +155 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -190 |
It's always nice when two of the most talented, star-studded teams meet on the sport's biggest stage. That's what we have on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball when the Braves attempt to salvage a four-game series split with the Padres.
The pitching matchup is rather dull as injuries have hit both rotations hard. Still, it'll be fun to see starters Seth Lugo and Dylan Dodd try to make a name for themselves on national television.
This is a very even matchup, but I still see value on one side. Read on for my preview of Padres vs. Braves and my pick for the game.
San Diego Padres
Since dropping their first two games of the season to the Rockies, the Padres have settled in, winning five of their last seven, including the past two over Atlanta.
Xander Bogaerts needed no time to settle in with his new team. He already has 11 hits, including six for extra bases, alongside six walks to five strikeouts, all combining for a 1.122 OPS.
When Bogaerts is playing to his potential, he's one of the most dynamic players in baseball. He pairs incredible plate discipline with a solid contact tool and an ability to hit for power, and he's flashed some impressive glove skills to start this season as well.
It's been up-and-down for the rest of the lineup, as the Padres are a league-average team by wRC+ over the season's first week. They've been seeing the zone well (fifth in walk rate, 11.3%) but haven't made enough solid contact (24th in hard-hit rate, 35.4%.
Juan Soto might finally be getting something going, which would be huge for this squad.
JUAN SOTO CRUSHED THIS BALL pic.twitter.com/fvNPn6c1ni
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 9, 2023
Soto hasn't found his groove with San Diego, boasting a low-for-him .769 OPS since the trade in August — but he's due to break out eventually.
In the meantime, the Padres are just waiting on Fernando Tatis Jr.'s return, alongside some better injury luck.
Starting pitcher: Seth Lugo (RHP)
I'm not sure what's happening with the Padres rotation. I'm positive that Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are at the top, and I know that Joe Musgrove is working his way back from a toe injury.
Outside of that, it seems like there are several guys who will see opening frames for San Diego this year, including Ryan Weathers, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha. The Padres might end up with a seven-man rotation by the end of the year.
I didn't expect Lugo to be part of that list, especially after several productive years as a middle reliever with the Mets. However, the Padres were always intent on giving him another chance as a starter, and Bob Melvin might be onto something.
Lugo was unstoppable in his Padres debut, holding the Rockies to one run on one hit over seven frames, striking out seven with no walks. He was masterful, seemingly one step ahead of his opponent all night.
Lugo's bread-and-butter has always been his high-spin curveball, which rips toward hitters with over 3,200 RPMs. He held MLB opponents to just a .184 average last season, and the spinner looks good to start this season.
Seth Lugo, 3,414 RPM Hammer. 🔨⚒️ pic.twitter.com/xmIAeko7oz
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 2, 2023
Lugo pairs that with a half-decent, upper-90s fastball, trying to tunnel the pitches together to force whiffs on the curve. It worked last year, as batters whiffed a third of the time on the pitch.
Lugo rounds out his arsenal with a sinker and slider.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are so good.
The lineup is deep, with Matt Olson and Austin Riley leading the pack early. Ronald Acuna Jr. is playing excellent ball, too, with an .851 OPS and four stolen bases.
The Braves will play solid defense. They currently rank in the top 10 in both Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved.
The Braves also should finish the year as a top-10 baserunning team.
The Braves might have the best bullpen in MLB; they're top-five at a minimum. They're currently fifth in reliever ERA.
Atlanta is 6-3, and it's hard to find a weakness on this team.
But, if we're nitpicking …
I'm not the biggest fan of Brian Snitker, who's a bit too "old school" for baseball in 2023. Baseball Prospectus projects him as the third-worst bullpen manager in MLB, just ahead of Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts.
Plus, the rotation needs to get healthy.
Starting pitcher: Dylan Dodd (LHP)
It's funny, like San Diego, I'm not entirely sure what's happening with Atlanta's rotation either. The Braves currently have four starters on the IL, and that doesn't include Mike Soroka, who is still trying to find his stride in Triple-A after a terrible string of injuries.
But with chaos comes opportunity, and Dodd is here to snatch it up.
MLB Pipeline's scouting report on Dodd characterized him as a "priority senior sign." Essentially, teams will draft cheap college seniors in the early rounds to save money for tougher-to-sign talent in later rounds, but some of these college seniors actually have a high ceiling.
Dodd spent three years as Southeast Missouri State's ace. He's 25 years old and lacks raw talent, but his maturity level shows — he ripped through the Braves' Double-A and Triple-A levels last season.
Suddenly, a killer Spring Training (18 IP, 4 ER, 20 K) and a bevy of injuries puts this southpaw into the middle of Atlanta's rotation. As Ferris Bueller may say, life moves pretty fast.
Dodd won't impress you with stuff (92 mph fastball), but he's renowned for a mature approach and impeccable command (2.0 BB/9, 70-grade command per FanGraphs). As such, most project him as a back-end starter for a competitive team.
Well, here Dodd is, pitching as a back-end starter for a very competitive team. And he's pitching well, beginning his MLB career by pitching five innings of one-run ball against the ever-dangerous Cardinals.
Dylan Dodd was exceptional tonight against a strong Cardinals lineup. 71% strike rate, great command of his pitches, 32% CSW. He earned himself another start if not more.
pic.twitter.com/PAYrKXGRDt— Chris Clegg (@RotoClegg) April 5, 2023
Dodd is a crafty southpaw. His fastball plays thanks to a high spin rate (2200 RPM) and his sweeping slider misses bats like crazy (42.1% whiff rate in the start against St. Louis).
The Cardinals also posted a 56% hard-hit rate and a 94.7 mph average exit velocity off Dodd, so I don't want to get Spencer Strider-level excited.
But the young lefty seems to be the early answer to Atlanta's rotation injury woes.
Padres vs. Braves Betting Pick
I think the Braves salvage a split on Sunday Night Baseball. These are two relatively evenly matched teams, so it's only right that they split a four-game set.
The biggest issue for the Padres on Sunday is how they're trending against left-handed pitching. San Diego is currently 28th in wRC+ (66) against that side to start the season.
There's been some poor luck involved (.212 BABIP), but the Padres have five lefties in their current day-to-day lineup, so it's not ludicrous to project them as a relatively worse left-handed-hitting team.
Either way, I'm willing to play that angle with the promising Dodd on the mound.
Meanwhile, I'm skeptical Lugo will toss gems in back-to-back games. Sure, he dominated the Rockies, but he's about to face a huge step up in competition (the Braves) on the road (in Atlanta).
The Braves were a top-10 team last season in Weighted Curveball Runs created, so they'll be able to counter Lugo's heaviest-used pitch. I don't love the matchup for Lugo.
Also worth noting here is San Diego's top three relievers pitched in its win on Saturday. Closer Josh Hader tossed 29 pitches in a save. Meanwhile, three of the top five Braves relievers rested.
Again, these are two relatively evenly-matched teams, but there are enough advantages to back Atlanta on Sunday Night.
Pick: Braves ML (-113 | Play to -120) |
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