The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on July 6, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on YES.
The Rays are favored by -115 on the moneyline and are +1.5 on the run line. The Yankees are -105 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Pick: Rays ML (-115, play to -145)
My Yankees vs Rays best bet is on Tampa Bay to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -105 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -115 |
- Yankees vs Rays moneyline: Yankees -105, Rays -115
- Yankees vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Yankees vs Rays spread: Yankees -1.5 (+165), Rays +1.5 (-200)
Yankees vs Rays Kalshi MLB Odds
Yankees vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Cam Schlittler (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Griffin Jax (RHP, TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-5 | W-L | 4-5 |
| 3.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.08 / 3.15 | ERA / xERA | 3.45 / 5.37 |
| 2.69 / 2.99 | FIP / xFIP | 4.61 / 3.70 |
| 24.6 | K-BB% | 15.3 |
| 41.6 | GB% | 44.0 |
| .268 | BABIP | .285 |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 105 | Location+ | 104 |
Yankees vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
No team in baseball is looking forward to the All-Star break more than the reeling Yankees.
They have just one win in their last nine games, and many of those were uncompetitive, losing seven of them by 3+ runs.
Aaron Boone has the right guy to send to the mound in the Cy Young frontrunner, Cam Schlittler. Schlittler boasts an MLB-best 2.08 ERA with a strong 3.15 xERA and 2.68 FIP.
He got smacked around in his last outing, allowing six runs and four home runs in a loss to the Tigers. The best part of Schlittler's attack is his high-velocity fastball, which he uses to strike out hitters 29% of the time and walk hitters just 5% of the time.
Pitching isn't the issue for New York; it's the lineup. A lineup that has a 53 wRC+ over their past 14 games before Sunday — the worst in the league by a wide margin.
Of course, not having Aaron Judge and even Giancarlo Stanton is a huge issue. The more pressing issue is that only one Yankee has a wRC+ above 85 in that span (Amed Rosario). Both Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger are All-Stars, but they're each hitting below .135 in their past 14 games.
Will that last? Of course not. Rice and Bellinger are too good of hitters. But there's a correlation between their struggles and Judge's injury. Pitchers can give Rice and Bellinger fewer pitches to hit since the bottom of the order can't hit.
Griffin Jax will take the ball for the Rays to start this huge series against the Yankees. He's injected some life into this Rays rotation, posting a 2.75 ERA in 51 innings over 12 starts since April 26th.
The underlying numbers aren't as strong for Jax, as his xERA is 5.14 and his FIP is 4.09. Plus, he ranks in the 11th percentile in xBA (.278) and 13th in barrel rate (10.7%).
I'd expect some regression for Jax, because more often than not, the numbers don't lie. However, the Yankees' dreadful current lineup has made pitchers who are worse than Jax look like All-Star-level arms recently.
In the time that the Yankees offense has tumbled into being the worst in the league, the Rays have leaped to being the best in the league. They boast a 139 wRC+ and have 24 home runs, 11 of which came from Junior Caminero's bat. Yes, you read that right: 11 homers in 15 games.
It's not just Caminero, though. Seven Tampa Bay hitters have a wRC+ better than 130, including usual non-hitters like Taylor Walls, Jonny DeLuca and Chandler Simpson.
With the Rays' ability to put the ball in play, it should lead to a high pitch count for Schlittler and get into a porous Yankees bullpen more quickly.
Yankees vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
The line that makes the most sense here is backing the better team as a slight favorite — and it's the Rays. Tampa Bay is dominant at home, posting a 31-12 record.
I don't expect that to change, even against a pitcher of Schlittler's caliber.
Pick: Rays ML (-115, BetMGM | Play to -145)
