The Toronto Blue Jays host the New York Mets on Wednesday, July 1. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 3:07 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SNET and MLB.TV.
The Mets are favored by -116 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Blue Jays are -102 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction, Picks
- Mets vs Blue Jays Pick: Under 8.5 (+102 · FanDuel)
My Mets vs Blue Jays best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Blue Jays Odds, Line, Spread
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -105 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -115 |
Mets vs Blue Jays Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Freddy Peralta (NYM) | Stat | RHP Braydon Fisher (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-6 | W-L | 3-3 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.53/3.76 | ERA / xERA | 3.48/3.92 |
| 4.17/4.05 | FIP / xFIP | 4.47/4.13 |
| 13.3% | K-BB% | 12.5% |
| 43.0% | GB% | 45.0% |
| .299 | BABIP | .226 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
Mets vs Blue Jays Preview
New York Mets
On Monday, the Mets dropped the opener to the Blue Jays 2-1, falling to 15 games under .500 for the first time since 2018.
They did not stay there for long as they won 3-0 last night. Nolan McLean tossed six shutout innings and struck out seven. The Mets will turn to Freddy Peralta to start the series finale.
After one of the worst starts of his career against the Phillies, Peralta bounced back against the Cubs. He gave up three unearned runs while striking out five in 5 2/3 innings, finishing one out shy of a quality start.
Pitching in the NL his entire career, Peralta has not faced the Blue Jays too often. However, he has a 2.25 ERA in two career starts. Last year, he dominated them, tossing six shutout innings while allowing just one hit and striking out eight in Toronto.
Another start like that may be needed as the Mets have been scuffling offensively of late. In June, they averaged 3.8 runs per game, which contributed to a 10-17 record.
The good news for them is that this game will be played in the afternoon. As a team, the Mets score slightly more in day games, see a 20-point increase to their team batting average, and a 40-point increase to their team OPS.
They did get an addition to their lineup last week when Francisco Lindor returned from the IL. In five games, he has three hits and three RBI, including a solo home run on Monday.
Toronto Blue Jays
Last year's World Series helped garner the Blue Jays a lot of popularity.
They have seven finalists among the All-Star finalists at their positions, while Ernie Clement earned an automatic start as the AL's leading vote-getter.
While Clement benefited from a weak year at second base in the American League, he is hitting .297 with seven home runs and 28 RBI this season. He is hitting .348 over the last week.
Unlike Clement, many of the Blue Jays have underperformed. After ranking fourth in runs last season, they have fallen to 25th this season. In free agency, they lost Bo Bichette (who returned to Toronto this week), while Addison Barger has spent most of the year on the IL.
The Blue Jays needed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to have a year closer to his MVP form. Instead, he has hit just four home runs this season after hitting eight last postseason.
He's hitting just .198 over the last month and has fallen to a .695 OPS for the season. The Blue Jays will be hoping that he does not need a stint on the IL himself. Guerrero did not start last night's game because of back tightness.
The Blue Jays will use an opener for today's game, with Braydon Fisher getting the start. It's unclear who the bulk reliever will be, but Spencer Miles and Patrick Corbin are both candidates.
The Mets will be hoping that Corbin is the choice, as they are hitting .298 against him collectively.
Mets vs Blue Jays Pick, Best Bet
With this being the rubber match, one of these teams must win the series, and neither has done much winning of late.
The Mets have lost nine of their last 11 games, while the Blue Jays have lost seven of their last eight. In those stretches, the Mets have averaged 3.3 runs per game while the Blue Jays have averaged 3.1 runs per game.
That also tracks with the head-to-head matchups. Since the start of last season, the under has hit in each of the last five meetings.
Additionally, no more than five runs were scored in any of those games, while the first two games have seen three apiece.
With the total being at 8.5 today, this game may cruise comfortably under, particularly if Peralta dominates the Blue Jays again.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+102, FanDuel)
