MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections for Tuesday 7/8

MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections for Tuesday 7/8 article feature image
Credit:

Imagn Images. Pictured: Simeon Woods Richardson (Twins) & Didier Fuentes (Braves)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, July 8.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.

For Tuesday, I preview Rays vs. Tigers, Mariners vs. Yankees, Cubs vs. Twins and Braves vs. Athletics. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.

My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.

Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.

Quickslip

Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.


MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — 7/8


Rays vs. Tigers

Rays Logo
Tuesday, Jul 8
6:40 p.m. ET
FDSDET
Tigers Logo
Rays Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-220
8
-108o / -114u
+104
Tigers Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+165
8
-108o / -114u
-124
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
BetRivers Logo

Ryan Pepiot vs. Jack Flaherty

This is another fade of Jack Flaherty, as his injured arm is wearing down and he's falling behind more in counts. Through May 31, Flaherty has a 3.94 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 22% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+ and 5.12 botERA.

Since that date, he has a 6.60 ERA, 4.29 xFIP, 14.3% K-BB%, 92 Pitching+ and 5.12 botERA.

Flaherty struggled in the second half of last season, too. The Yankees backed out of a deal at the trade deadline due to his medicals, and he had a very soft free agency market in the offseason.

In the first half of 2024, Flaherty had a 2.53 xFIP and 27.8% K-BB%. Meanwhile, in the second half of the 2024 season, he posted a 3.65 xFIP and 19.1% K-BB%.

Rays vs Tigers Prediction, Odds: MLB Picks, Preview for Tuesday, July 8 Image

On the flip side, Ryan Pepiot (3.93 xERA, 16.5% K-BB%, 109 Pitching+, 3.15 botERA) has a higher floor and ceiling and has shown better strikeout stuff lately (19.9% strikeout rate through May 31 and 34.4% since).

These are two hot offenses, as the Rays are No. 1 in the MLB in wRC+ over the last 30 days (127) while the Tigers are No. 4 (121).

I prefer the Rays' bullpen to the Tigers', as it's fifth in xFIP and fourth in K-BB% compared to Detroit's stats of 10th and 19th, respectively.

I project the Rays ML at -114 for the first five innings and -112 for the game.

I also have the total set at 8.88 runs.

Pick: Rays ML (Play to -103) | Small Play on Rays F5 to -105 | Over 8.5 to -105

Mariners vs. Yankees

Mariners Logo
Tuesday, Jul 8
7:05 p.m. ET
ROOT Sports NW
Yankees Logo
Mariners Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-187
9
-103o / -117u
+108
Yankees Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+153
9
-103o / -117u
-132
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
DraftKings Logo

Logan Gilbert vs. Will Warren

Logan Gilbert has ascended this season, as he's sitting first among starting pitchers (minimum 50 innings pitched) in K-BB% (31.3%) and xFIP (2.12).

To compare him against another great starter, Tarik Skubal has a 30.7% K-BB% and 2.27 xFIP in 2025. In the preseason, I rated them about the same, and even though I prefer Skubal now, Gilbert is my No. 1 overall starting pitcher behind Paul Skenes

Gilbert has been a bit unlucky in his four starts since his return from the injured list (right elbow strain), posting a 4.95 ERA vs. 2.68 xFIP, 29.8% K-BB%, 3.22 botERA and 117 Pitching+. Before the injured list, his stats consisted of a 2.37 ERA, 1.75 xFIP, 32.5% K-BB%, 3.05 botERA and 115 Pitching+.

The Yankees' offense is in a colder stretch, and their bullpen has turned into a pumpkin. Over the last 30 days, the offense is 12th in the MLB in wRC+ (108), although they've improved to fourth in wRC+ over the last 14 days.

Meanwhile, the bullpen is 19th in xFIP and 26th in K-BB% over the last 30 days. It's even down to 26th in both categories over the last 14 days.

Seattle's offense is always better away from T-Mobile Park, as it's third in the MLB in wRC+ (117) on the road compared to 15th at home (106). I prefer the Mariners' bullpen, too.

Will Warren's velocity, stuff and command is down in his last two starts. In his last outing, Warren's velocity was down to 92.2 (his season average in 2024 was 93.3). His Stuff+ is down from 103 to 99 and his botERA is up from 3.59 to 4.12 in his last two starts compared to the first 16.

Pick: Mariners ML -102 (Play to +105)

Cubs vs. Twins

Cubs Logo
Tuesday, July 8
7:40 p.m. ET
MARQ
Twins Logo
Cubs Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+115
9
-105o / -115u
-145
Twins Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-140
9
-105o / -115u
+120
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
BetMGM Logo

Shota Imanaga vs. Simeon Woods Richardson

Both of these starters have a fly-ball profile (56.5% for Shota Imanaga, 48.9% for Simeon Woods Richardson), and the wind will be blowing out (eight mph to right field) in Minnesota today.

Imanaga's velocity and stuff remains down following his injured-list stint and rehab. I wasn't initially concerned given that the injury was a hamstring strain, but his average fastball sits at 90.5 mph since then with a Stuff+ of 91 and a botERA of 4.34.

Before the injured list, Imanaga's fastball was 91.2 mph (91.7 in 2024) with a Stuff+ of 99 and a 2.76 botERA.

The Cubs' bullpen remains sketchy at best, as it's 24th in xFIP and 27th in K-BB%. They've had better splits lately, but I don't trust their arms or project them better than an average unit.

Meanwhile, the Twins have a well-rested, elite bullpen that's second in xFIP, fifth in K-BB%, first in Pitching+ and fifth in botERA.

The Minnesota lineup is as healthy as it's been all year, especially with Royce Lewis back from the injured list.

The Cubs' offense is red-hot, too, with a 132 wRC+ over the last 14 days (first in the MLB).

I like the Twins on the moneyline and the over, as I project the Twins at +105 and the total at 9.54.

Pick: Twins ML (Play to +115) | Over 9 to -110

Braves vs. Athletics

Braves Logo
Tuesday, July 8
10:05 p.m. ET
NBCS-CA
Athletics Logo
Braves Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-1.5
+140
10.5
-105o / -115u
-115
Athletics Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+1.5
-170
10.5
-105o / -115u
-105
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
BetMGM Logo

Didier Fuentes vs. Jeffrey Springs

The updated Sutter Health Park Factors are +25% Runs (tied with CoorsField), +3% singles (ninth), +37% doubles (first), +9% home runs (ninth), +9% walks (fourth) and -5% strikeouts (23rd). Overs are 25-19-1 this season, but unders are on a 5-1-1 run at Sutter Health Park.

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