Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, May 13.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Marlins vs Cubs, Rockies vs Rangers, Yankees vs Mariners, and Twins vs Orioles. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Tuesday, May 13
Twins vs. Orioles Over/Under Prediction
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -192 | 9 -112o / -108u | +110 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 9 -112o / -108u | -130 |
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN) vs. LHP Cade Povich (BAL)
I projected 9.68 runs for this game pre-umpire.
The Tuesday forecast calls for 70-degree weather and a 14 mph crossbreeze; there's a 91% chance of rain, so this game may get rained out, delayed or pushed.
This game features a pair of back-end starters — Woods Richardson with a projected FIP range of 4.34-to-4.67, and Povich from 4.26-to-4.93.
Povich was roughed up in his last outing, surrendering five runs, all in the third inning, across six innings against the Twins. He has a career 5.31 ERA, 4.8 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA through 23 starts. His xERA is up from 4.11 to 6.28 this year.
The left-hander has decent command (105 Location +), but his arsenal, besides his slider (100 Stuff+), is below average.
Woods Richardson had mixed results in his last outing, giving up two runs over 4 2/3 innings against the Orioles. He has a career 4.27 ERA, 4.63 xFIP and 4.51 SIERA through 35 starts; his xERA is up from 4.02 last year to 5.46 this year.
He has a quality changeup (107 Stuff+), but it's his least-used pitch at 13% (which is down 6% from his career rate).
Pick: Over 9 (-108 to -117)
Marlins vs. Cubs: 2 Picks on Total & First Five Innings
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8 -112o / -108u | +215 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8 -112o / -108u | -265 |
RHP Valente Bellozo (MIA) vs. RHP Ben Brown (CHI)
Tuesday's weather forecast at Wrigley Field will be similar to Monday's (62 degrees; 5 mph winds blowing in).
This triggered an Action Labs system for Wind/Weather, including the same Wrigley Field Under system as Monday (294-194-23; 60.2% win; 15.7% ROI since 2005).
The Marlins and Cubs are two of the best over teams this season, combining for a 48-29-4 (62.3%) record.
As for the pitchers …
Ben Brown mainly uses two pitches — a 113 Stuff+ knucklecurve (39% usage; .295 xwOBA in 2025, .183 in 2024) and an 83 Stuff+ fastball (59% use; .362 xwOBA in 2025, .401 in 2024).
He has a career 3.6 xFIP and 18.7% strikeout minus walk rate with great projections (FIP range of 3.51-to-3.87). Pitching models are not as high on him — 95 Stuff+, 4.59 botERA.
Bellozo has a career 5.54 xFIP and 7.3% strikeout minus walk rate. He grades out with a 124 Stuff+ on his slider (16% use), but a 93 Stuff+ overall with a 5.14 botERA.
I project 8.47 runs on a typical day, which Tuesday is not (7.52 runs).
I also make the Cubs -285 favorites for the first five innings (F5).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-120) or Under 8 (-110); Cubs F5 Moneyline (to -260)
Rockies vs. Rangers: Target the Under
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -102 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | +205 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -118 | 8.5 -102o / -118u | -250 |
LHP Kyle Freeland (COL) vs. RHP Jack Leiter (TEX)
The roof at Globe Life Field was ultimately open on Monday (82 degrees first pitch) — it will be much warmer on Tuesday (94 degrees).
The Rangers extended their record as the best under team to date: 28-13-1 (+30.5% ROI; $1,280 for a consistent $100 bettor).
The Rockies are now 14-6 on unders away from Coors Field, behind a shocking 51 wRC+ and .537 OPS.
Jack Leiter has had an enigmatic professional career to date. His ERA is a bloated 7.36 but has strong Stuff+ (107) and botERA (3.89) marks. He has three plus pitches — 123 fastball, 108 slider, 105 changeup.
Kyle Freeland has shown improved command this season with a career-best 3.8% walk rate; his strikeout minus walk rate is above average over the past two years.
Remarkably, he has a career 4.44 xFIP at Coors Field compared to 4.64 on the road
I projected the Rangers' lineup without Corey Seager, who is dealing with a hamstring issue. I would increase the projection to 8.16 if he’s back in and adjust the price target to 8.5 (-105).
Pick: Under 8.5 (-102 to -112)
Royals vs. Astros: Value on Underdog KC
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | +114 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 7.5 -108o / -112u | -135 |
LHP Kris Bubic (KC) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (HOU)
