Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Tuesday, June 25.
MLB Predictions Tuesday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 25)
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | -130 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -104o / -118u | +110 |
Luis Castillo (SEA) vs. Zack Littell (TB)
I was high on the Rays coming into the season, and I still expect them to play better in the second half than they have to date, with Drew Rasmussen throwing bullpens, Jeffrey Springs rehabbing in Triple-A and Junior Caminero primed for a late-summer call up.
Even before the Rays' come-from-behind win on Monday, all public forecasts projected value in their odds to make the postseason. PECOTA (17.3%; +478 implied odds), FanGraphs (19.3%), ATC (25.9%) and The Bat X (29.2%; +243 implied odds) each like the Rays to make the playoffs more than their listed odds, which are as high as +575 (14.8% implied).
Unfortunately, the Rays have the most difficult remaining schedule so timing your entry into that make/miss playoff market could be difficult.
Regarding Tuesday's matchup, we're taking the Rays as home underdogs behind Zack Littell (4.13 xERA, 17.3% K-BB%, 100 Pitching+), who owns the third-lowest walk rate amongst 90 qualified starters (min. 100 innings) since he joined the Rays rotation full time in July of 2023. Over that span, Littell only ranks behind teammate Zach Eflin (2.2%) and command-artist George Kirby (2.5%) — and he is directly ahead of Logan Webb (4.2%).
Luis Castillo (3.88 xERA, 18% K-BB%, 103 Pitching+) is the slightly better pitcher with better strikeout stuff. However, his velocity is down this season, which is the continuation of a multiyear trend (95.3 mph vs. 96.3 mph in 2022 and 97.1 mph in both 2021 and 2022).
Castillo's pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+; 104 in 2022, 106 in 2021, 108 in 2020) and strikeout rate (24.7%; -2.6% vs. last season) are falling in lockstep with the velocity decrease.
There are peaks and valleys within those seasons — over a six-start stretch from April 25 to May 23, Castillo averaged 96 mph on his fastball and posted a 2.45 ERA. In five starts since, Castillo's fastball is down a tick to 94.9 mph on average, and his ERA has ballooned to 4.34.
Seattle's bullpen is a bit more heavily taxed for Tuesday's matchup. Bryan Woo left after three innings with hamstring tightness on Monday, forcing six Mariners relievers into action after using five on Sunday, including four arms for the second consecutive day.
Bets: Rays F5 Moneyline (+112 or better) | Rays Full-Game Moneyline (+102 or better)
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| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +210 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -255 |
Austin Gomber (COL) vs. Hunter Brown (HOU)
Hunter Brown has carried solid pitch modeling metrics all season (104 Stuff+, 101 Locaiton+, 102 Pitching+) — in line with his 2023 levels — but he may have been tipping pitches in April. Brown's disastrous start on April 11 in Kansas City will live on in MLB lore (2/3 IP, 11 H, 9 R, 1 BB, 0 K) and continue to harm his season-long stats.
Otherwise, Brown has performed up to projections (projected FIP range of 3.56 to 4.03) and gotten better as the season has progressed, with a 3.38 ERA in 11 starts since that nine-run implosion, a 2.45 ERA in eight starts since April and a 1.45 ERA in five starts over the past 30 days (with a 31.9% strikeout rate).
Brown has modified his pitch mix lately, introducing a sinker in May and reducing his four-seam fastball usage while attacking opponents with a more balanced pitch mix.
Brown was unlucky last season (5.09 ERA, 4.27 xERA) but also struggled with mechanics and tired down the stretch while surpassing 150 innings for the first time in his career. Brown drew comparisons to a young Justin Verlander just 14 months ago, and he may finally be hitting his stride after an early sophomore slump.
Bets: Astros F5 Moneyline (-250 or better)
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +104 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -194 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -122 |
Mitch Spence (OAK) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
Mitch Spence (3.67 xERA, 13.8% K-BB%) has been a valuable Rule 5 selection for the Athletics while showing solid results between the rotation (4.17 xFIP, 99 Stuff+, 105 Location+) and the bullpen (3.32 xFIP, 101 Stuff+, 100 Location+). Spence offers above-average command with a plus slider (121 Stuff+) and a solid curveball (102), and projections view him as a league-average arm (projected FIP range of 4.03 to 4.28).
Oddly, Spence, a right-handed pitcher, has better strikeout and walk numbers against lefties (18.5% K-BB%, 3.28 xFIP) than righties (10.3% K-BB%, 4.21 xFIP), but a higher wOBA (.332) against lefties than same-sided hitters (.293). The sample (63 innings) is still relatively small, but his big slider may lead to reverse splits.
Mitch Spence's Slider was the Highest Grading tjStuff+ Pitch from yesterday
Spence is a part of a strong Oakland Bullpen and has a 2.84 ERA and 3.11 through 19.0 IP pic.twitter.com/sD0YTwvGWc
— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) May 1, 2024
Hopefully, we'll finally get that Tyler Anderson implosion we've been waiting for (2.48 ERA, 4.48 xERA, 5.7% K-BB%, 94 Stuff+, 98 Pitching+). He ranks last among qualified starters in K-BB% — behind Patrick Corbin — and has the second-highest xFIP (5.12) among that group of 72 starters.
Anderson has run incredibly lucky with his BABIP (.224 vs. 284 career) and strand rate (86.9% vs. 72.8% career). Among qualified starters, Anderson (-1.99) has the most significant difference between actual and expected ERA this season, ahead of Colin Rea (-1.67) and Seth Lugo (-1.51). Your unluckiest qualified starters, per xERA differential, are Ryan Feltner (+1.97), Pablo Lopez (+1.86) and Aaron Civale (1.24).
Oakland has the bullpen advantage in this series, ranking 17th in K-BB%, 18th in xFIP, and 12th in Pitching+. Angels relievers rank 27th, 27th and 24th by those same three data points, and I'd project the A's bullpen about a third of a run better on a season-long ERA.
Bets: Athletics F5 Moneyline (+103 or better) | Athletics Full-Game Moneyline (+105 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Tuesday, June 25
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- Houston Astros F5 (-210, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -250; reduce risk above -225)
- Minnesota Twins / Arizona Diamondbacks, Under 8 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
- Oakland Athletics F5 (+112, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +103)
- Oakland Athletics (+116, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +105)
- Philadelphia Phillies / Detroit Tigers, Over 7 (-118, 0.25u) at DraftKings (small to -125)
- San Francisco Giants (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -112)
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 (+118, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +112)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+118, 0.75u) at FanDuel (bet to +102; reduce risk below +110)
- Texas Rangers / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 9 (+100, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -105)
- Washington Nationals F5 (-106, 0.5u) at Parx (bet to -111)
- Washington Nationals / San Diego Padres, Over 7.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -116)
