Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Sunday, June 9.
MLB Predictions Sunday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 9)
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +136 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -110o / -110u | -162 |
Keaton Winn (SF) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
Keaton Winn (right forearm strain) will be returning from injury, but if he's anything like he was at the beginning of the season, he's not going to last long. In nine starts, Winn has a 6.17 ERA and a 5.50 xERA.
Winn has one main pitch: a splitter that he throws 41% of the time. Last season, he threw it well over 55% of the time, so the decrease has likely been an aim at not being so predictable. However, it's had the opposite effect because his splitter is allowing a .369 xwOBA and is only generating a whiff rate of 21.7%, which is down almost 15% from last season.
Bad news for Winn is the Rangers have the fourth-best xwOBA against splitters this season. If Winn can't pitch deep into the game, that is going to put a lot of pressure on a Giants bullpen that will be without their top two arms, Camilo Doval and Tyler Rogers, who have pitched in back-to-back days.
Rangers starter Nathan Eovaldi has been really good this season (2.70 ERA), but he has overperformed and is due for a little negative regression. He mainly utilizes a fastball/splitter combination, but the xwOBA allowed only both pitches is significantly higher than the actual wOBA allowed.
The Giants are a really good fastball hitting team (.360 xwOBA) and have a positive run value against right-handed splitters, so this isn't the worst matchup for them.
I have 8.8 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on over 8 runs at -110.
Pick: Over 8 (-110 via BetMGM)
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -124o / 102u | -130 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8.5 -124o / 102u | +110 |
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs. Frankie Montas (CIN)
Shota Imanaga has been incredible for the Cubs. He's posted a 1.88 ERA and a 3.02 xERA, but he is a heavy fly-ball pitcher who has benefitted from an ideal pitching environment for most of his starts. That changes on Sunday.
Imanaga utilizes his fastball 57% of the time and it doesn't have much velocity, sitting at only 91.9 mph. He throws it 56% of the time up in the zone and has produced a 47% fly-ball rate because he has 18 inches of iVB (induced vertical break) to keep the ball off the barrel. On Sunday, he's going to be pitching in the most hitter-friendly park outside of Coors Field — Great American Ball Park — with the wind blowing out at 12 mph.
He also has gotten roughed up in his last two starts, giving up a combined 12 runs to the Brewers and White Sox because a larger percentage of his fly balls are turning into home runs. The Reds have been successful against left-handed fastballs this season, putting up the eighth-best xwOBA.
For the Reds, Frankie Montas really hasn't been that good this season — his xERA is up at 4.31. The reason he's struggled is because he isn't generating a high number of swings and misses.
Montas' CSW% (called + swinging strike percent) is 25.1%, which is in the eighth percentile. That has translated to an incredibly low 18.1% strikeout rate.
What it really comes down to is the fact that his fastball and cutter haven't been effective. Both of those pitches are allowing over a .330 xwOBA, which is bad new against the Cubs, who are top six in baseball in terms of xwOBA against those two pitches.
I have 9.9 runs projected for this game, so I like the value on over 9 runs at -105.
Pick: Over 9 (-105 via BetMGM)
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -106 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 8.5 -118o / -104u | -110 |
Carlos Carrasco (CLE) vs. Trevor Rogers (MIA)
The first five (F5) total is too short for me with these two starting pitchers on the mound.
Carlos Carrasco has continued to show his age. Last season was a complete disaster for Carrasco, who posted a 6.77 xERA in 20 starts — this season hasn't been much better, with an xERA of 5.19.
The problem for Carrasco is his fastball is a complete embarrassment. The velocity has dropped over a tick from last season (91.2 mph in 2024 vs. 92.7 mph in 2023), it has a .413 xwOBA and has a Stuff+ rating of 63. He's trying to diversify his pitch mix a little more, but the heater is still his most utilized pitch.
His changeup and slider have actually been okay and grade out as above-average offerings by Stuff+, but he's also increased the usage of his sinker, which is getting hit hard and has a Stuff+ of 90.
Trevor Rogers hasn't been much better. He has the same xERA as Carrasco, but his ERA is somehow actually higher at 5.68. Rogers is having control issues, as his BB/9 is above four, but he is also allowing a 47.2% hard-hit rate when he does leave it in the zone.
The problem with Rogers is his pitch arsenal is well below Major-League standards. He only has a Stuff+ of 82, with a fastball and a sinker that are both allowing over a .400 xwOBA.
The Guardians have been outstanding against-left handed pitching (115 wRC+), so they should hammer Rogers on Sunday. Since Cleveland has the best bullpen in baseball, I am going target the total for the F5 innings at over 4.5 runs at -115.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-115 via FanDuel)
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