Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Projection guru Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, March 11.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Monday, May 11
Follow Anderson in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Yankees ML (-175)
- Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 ER (-170)
- Rays vs Blue Jays Over 7.5 (+102)
- Rangers ML (-136)
- Diamondbacks vs Rangers Under 8.5 (-153)
- Giants vs Dodgers Under 9.5 (-120)
- Rosi Sasaki Under 2.5 Walks (-210)
- Angels TT Over 3.5 (+110)
Yankees vs Orioles Picks
Ryan Weathers is a joy to watch pitch. A shorter frame lefty with a 96-98 mph fastball and a really good changeup. And the Yankees are enjoying his services this year. He's given them a 3.03 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP with an elite 22% K-BB.
He'll get the nod here after being delayed a bit by illness. But even with some delays and slight injuries along the way, he's thrown at least 86 pitches in every start since his first one. So we should get a full allotment of pitches for Weathers.
The Orioles are a bottom-10 lineup in the league against lefties. The best way to measure that, in my book, is by using expected wOBA over expectation.This is a stat I developed over at MLB Data Warehouse. It takes xwOBA, a stat you're probably familiar with, and adjusts it for the pitch quality faced. So if a team is mashing fastballs right down the middle, that's accounted for.
It's a strong stat with tons of predictive power. The Orioles have a -.034 xwOBA OE against left-handed pitching this year. Only eight teams are worse. The O's are also in the bottom ten in strikeout rate against southpaws.
So it's a great spot for Weathers, and he gets the advantage of a positive park shift pitching in Camden Yards. Weathers has pitched extremely well this year, as we've detailed, and his win chances are helped by his counterpart, Brandon Young.
This is not a guy that Baltimore was hoping to have to count on as part of their rotation, but here we are. Young sports a 6.5% K-BB (15% K, 8.5% BB), and he's not a guy getting ground balls either (38% GB%). Against the Yankees, who lead the league in homers and barrel rate.
Pick: Yankees ML (-175), Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 ER (-170)
Rays vs Blue Jays Picks
This is the same pitching matchup I lost you money on about a week ago! It's Drew Rasmussen visiting the Blue Jays and Kevin Gausman after those two pitched to a 4-3 Rays win in Tampa.
So these teams are familiar with the opposing pitcher. They've seen a lot of each other in recent years playing in this division, and this matchup happened just six days ago, as we mentioned.
I checked the data, and a pitcher's ERA increases by 0.05 points when they face the same team a second time in a row. That's a small increase, but it's an increase. Their strikeout rate ticks down slightly as well, and we have six years' worth of data in here, so it's not a super small sample.
They're both super contact-heavy offenses that can run the bases. I'm betting on familiarity and BABIP to favor the offenses.
Pick: Over 7.5 (+102)
Diamondbacks vs. Rangers Picks
We have Mike Soroka vs. Nathan Eovaldi in this one. Two pretty good arms! Both guys sport 3.05 SIERAs (the slightly tweaked version I use in my reports and dashboards). Neither guy gets a ton of strikeouts (24% for Eovaldi, 25% and dropping for Soroka), but they both have their own ways of getting outs.
This park factor is important to know, if you don't already. Something changed in Texas before the 2025 season, I'm convinced of it.
The Rangers' lineup is not nearly as good as it was back then, and that factors in. But if we zoom in on just the balls put into play, you can see a crazy trend. Here are the home run per barrel rates and slugging percentage on balls hit in the air in Texas for the last five seasons:
- 2021: 57.5% / 836
- 2022: 49.7% / .856
- 2023: 56.2% / .922
- 2024: 49.8% / .748
- 2025: 36.7% / .697
- 2026: 35.1% / .665
Please look at that and tell me something funky isn't going on. I dare you. These batted balls just seem to die. And that's been great for the Rangers' pitching staff. It could also help out Soroka in this one.
My money is on the Rangers side. Soroka's weakness is left-handed power, which is negated a bit by the park, but the Rangers will roll out five lefties against him tonight, and they still do have Corey Seager in that lineup who can do a lot of damage.
I'd be pretty interested in the under 0.5 game-homerline, but I can't find one right now. I think that will come out later. It should be serious "plus money", though. And maybe Seager, Evan Carter, or someone will ruin that.
So let's buy a little bit of juice on the under and bet on a Rangers win.
Pick: Rangers ML (-136), under 8.5 (-153)
Giants vs. Dodgers Picks
Lowest team walk rates in the league:
- Giants 5.5%
- D'Backs 7.4%
- Blue Jays 7.6%
- Phillies 7.9%
- Mets 8.0
The league average walk rate is 9.5%, which is higher than usual. But the Giants don't care. 90 feet is a long way to walk, I get it. I'd rather jog or just sit down.
Roki Sasaki Ball Rates:
- First Three Starts: 40.8%
- Last Three Starts: 38.1%
It's still high, but we're moving in the right direction. He's been throwing more splitters lately to hide his bad fastball, but he's been able to manage the splitter for a 41% Ball rate, which is pretty good for a splitter.
We kinda figured the Dodgers would figure something out with the guy after that disastrous rookie season. And he's still not a good pitcher. I'm not targeting him in fantasy leagues or DFS or anything like that, but we can see that there are positive signs for this particular matchup in the walks department.
Pick: Roki Sasaki Under 2.5 Walks
I can't find this line right now, but it will come. I also kinda think that Trevor McDonald can hang on enough to survive this start.
The Dodgers haven't been elite against right-handed sinkers and sliders, which McDonald throws more than 90% of the time. His slider is good, and his sinker keeps the ball on the ground. He gave up a few homers in the minor leagues, and he looked sharp in his MLB debut last week.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120)
Angels vs. Guardians Picks
The Angels love seeing lefties. Their team xwOBA is .325 against lefties, while it's down badly at .313 against righties. Their strikeout rate is two points lower, and their home run rate goes way up when facing a lefty.
So, my advanced matchups modelloves them against Joey Cantillo.
Here are the xwOBAs for the Angels from 2025-2026 against lefties that pitch most similarly to Cantillo:
- Neto .408
- Trout .445
- Grissom .482
- Soler .408
- Adell .326
- Schanuel .326
- Peraza .303
Really nice numbers as a unit, so I like the Angels here.
Pick: Angels TT Over 3.5 (+110)
There you have it! We hope you enjoy the extra content through this new daily series we're doing. Hit me up on X (@JonPGH) if you have any questions or want any fantasy baseball or betting advice!
Jon Anderson's MLB Predictions and Picks for Monday, May 11
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Yankees ML (-175)
- Ryan Weathers Under 2.5 ER (-170)
- Rays vs Blue Jays Over 7.5 (+102)
- Rangers ML (-136)
- Diamondbacks vs Rangers Under 8.5 (-153)
- Giants vs Dodgers Under 9.5 (-120)
- Rosi Sasaki Under 2.5 Walks (-210)
- Angels TT Over 3.5 (+110)
