Friday. Night. Lights.
I've got three home run props for you on this fine 4th of July weekend.
Clear eyes. Full Hearts. Three MLB Player Props today.
MLB Player Props Today
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 PM | |
| 7:10 PM | |
| 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Twins vs. Yankees MLB Player Prop
Ben Rice
Home Run
The Yankees' recent struggles are well-documented, as this injury-riddled squad has now lost seven straight games and closed out June with a mediocre 12-14 record.
However, the Bronx Bombers finally enjoyed a much-needed day off yesterday for the first time since June 15th and now welcome the Minnesota Twins and their abysmal pitching staff to town for a three-game series.
The Twins are very different from the clubs the Yankees have faced during their losing streak; Minnesota has the fourth-worst ERA (4.82) among MLB teams and has surrendered 102 home runs in 2026, putting them just inside the top 10 in that category.
Furthermore, the Twins have the worst bullpen ERA of any team in baseball, posting a lowly 5.37 mark as a unit and a sketchy 1.56 WHIP.
Could this feeble group of arms be what it takes to get Ben Rice and his boys back on track?
Although he hit just .196 in June, Rice still flexed his tantalizing power — the 27-year-old belted six home runs last month and registered a .224 ISO over his last 75 plate appearances.
Spending the weekend at Yankee Stadium will be helpful too, as Rice has been dominant in his home park, going deep 14 times in just 36 home games to go along with a ridiculous .362 ISO and .622 SLG.
Tonight, Rice will face Minnesota right-hander Mike Paredes, who, through his six career major league appearances, has allowed some of the loudest contact in baseball. Opponents own an average exit velocity of 91.9 MPH against the 25-year-old so far in 2026, which is the eighth-worst mark among qualified pitchers. In addition, his 51.8% hard-hit rate is the second-worst mark among qualified pitchers.
Although he has mostly limited the damage early in his career, a trip to Yankee Stadium on a hot night is a recipe for disaster for a young pitcher, especially if you are giving up that kind of contact.
Pick: Ben Rice Home Run
Orioles vs. Reds MLB Player Prop
Pete Alonso
Home Run
Despite a change of scenery in 2026, Pete Alonso remains one of the most feared power hitters in the game.
His debut season in Baltimore has been strikingly similar to his previous campaigns in New York — Alonso leads the Orioles with 19 home runs and 59 RBI, while also holding team-high marks in ISO (.220) and SLG (.466).
The 31-year-old's exit velocities haven't dropped off at all either, as his 94.1 MPH average exit velocity is tied for seventh among qualified major league hitters, while his 53.8% hard-hit rate ranks eighth.
The Polar Bear is coming off arguably his best month too, as he launched eight homers and posted a .557 SLG and .947 OPS in June.
Tonight, Alonso will square off against the Cincinnati Reds and starting pitcher Brady Singer, who has allowed 19 home runs so far through 2026. That mark is tied for the fifth-worst in the majors, and although he put together a trio of homerless starts over the last month, the 29-year-old returned to form in his last outing at Pittsburgh and conceded a pair of long balls in the loss.
Singer's struggles are connected to his floundering sinker, a pitch he has used nearly 50% of the time this season. The sinker has a -6 Run Value, and opponents are slugging .514 against it. Additionally, the sinker has just a 14% whiff rate and has been taken deep nine times.
There isn't a single pitch in Singer's arsenal with a positive run value in 2026, making it that much more important for the right-hander to get the sinker back on track.
On the other end, Alonso holds a .538 xSLG against sinkers in 2026 to go along with a 60.3% hard-hit rate and was incredibly successful against the pitch last season. In 2025, he hit .351 with a .567 SLG when facing sinkers, making him a candidate to ambush Singer on a warm night at Great American Ballpark.
Pick: Pete Alonso Home Run
Marlins vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop
Nick Kurtz
Home Run
While the Athletics have been decimated by injuries of late and are struggling to win games as a result, Nick Kurtz remains a model of stability for the franchise.
In spite of all the moving parts around him, the 24-year-old has missed just one game all season and stands amongst the team leaders in ISO (.237), SLG (.516), and OPS (.918). His 19 home runs on the year are second on the team, just one behind fellow masher Shea Langeliers.
In addition, the superstar first baseman ranks in the top five among all qualified major league hitters in hard-hit rate (58.5%) and average exit velocity (94.3 MPH).
Even when Kurtz is "slumping,” he still crushes the ball — he’s smacked 13 batted balls over 100 MPH across his past 40 plate appearances, although he has just one home run to show for it.
The visiting Marlins and their lack of left-handed pitching may be what it takes to help get Kurtz back on track.
The Athletics have faced five straight left-handed starters, and although Kurtz can hold his own against fellow southpaws, he really thrives against right-handed arms. Kurtz is up to 13 homers against righties to go along with a remarkable .273 ISO, making tonight's starter, Miami right-hander Tyler Phillips, a sight for sore eyes.
Behind Phillips, the Marlins have just two lefties in the bullpen (John King and Cade Gibson), but both threw close to 30 pitches in yesterday's outing at Colorado, putting their availability into question.
Phillips, a former reliever for Miami, has now started six games this season and has surrendered five home runs over the course of his last three outings. The 28-year-old has a 5.67 ERA on the road in 2026 and won't have the protection of Loan Depot Park behind him tonight.
As we know, pitching in Sacramento is much different than pitching in Miami, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Phillips have a rough outing out west this evening.
