Check out Derek Carty's two MLB player props today for the 4th of July from THE BAT X, including picks for Twins vs Yankees at 2:35 PM ET at Yankee Stadium.
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MLB Player Props Today
- Zebby Matthews Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122 or Better)
- Logan Gilbert Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-258 or Better)
Twins vs Yankees MLB Player Prop
THE BAT X is forecasting 4.14 strikeouts for Matthews compared to 4.97 strikeouts implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value on this prop.
If you take the Under, you'd be projected to win 60% of the time, resulting in a 36% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $35.92.
This play is good down to at least -122.
Pick: Zebby Matthews Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122 or Better)
Blue Jays vs Mariners MLB Player Prop
There may be some value in Gilbert's hits-allowed prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 3.55 hits allowed, and oddsmakers are implying 4.48.
The model believes there is a 79% chance he records fewer than five hits allowed.
If you can get the under at -140 or better, there is great value here. This play is good down to at least -258.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-258 or Better)
