Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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Read below for my top four MLB picks for Sunday, April 7.
MLB Picks Sunday | Odds Today, Predictions, Preview (April 7)
Mets vs. Reds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-106 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | -1.5 +155 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 8.5 -114 / -106 | +1.5 -190 |
Starting Pitchers: Sean Manaea vs. Andrew Abbott
I wrote about Sean Manaea in my preseason 'pitchers to bet on' column that published on Opening Day, and Manaea threw six shoutout innings with eight strikeouts while allowing three total base runners against the Tigers in his debut start for the Mets. The situation is much tougher for start No. 2, given that Manaea is throwing in Great American Ball Park, the most homer friendly park in the nation.
Fortunately for Manaea, his career 36.5% fly ball ratio should play decently well in this ballpark. It often comes down to just keeping the ball in the yard in Cincinnati, and Reds lefty Andrew Abbott has a 51% fly ball rate with major home run issues projected by the models this season. Abbott's projected home run rate allowed by THE BAT is 1.55, while Manaea's is 1.32. That doesn't seem like a huge difference, but it matters quite a bit at the margins.
Abbott has a 4.63 ERA projection from the same model, while Manaea is more than a half run lower at 4.03. There's been plenty of discourse about Francisco Lindor's poor start to the 2024 season, and the Mets offense as a whole has been a bit of a disaster.
New York actually has the 10th highest walk rate, 11th lowest K rate and their offensive numbers are dragged down by a league worst .196 BABIP. No offense in baseball has been worse than the Mets by wRC+, but it's mostly driven by bad batted ball and runs in scoring position variance.
It doesn't hurt the Mets that Reds set up man Emilio Pagan threw back to back days and is likely unavailable, while the Reds also used closer Alexis Diaz for a save on Saturday. Diaz should be available, but the Mets have the better starter, more rested bullpen and thus should be a small road favorite.
Pick: Mets ML (-105)
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Phillies vs Nationals
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-158 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +108 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+134 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -128 |
Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez vs. MacKenzie Gore
Nationals Park is an underrated hitters park during good conditions, but the wind is forecasted to be blowing in at 10 mph on Sunday at first pitch. Given the dominance of the Phillies bullpen, the improvements that Sanchez has made to his stuff and command to keep the ball down and the reliance of Philadelphia's offense on the long ball, it's a great recipe for a third consecutive under at Nationals Park to conclude this weekend series.
If you were to poke holes in Sanchez's 2023 season, you'd say he gave up too many homers. The Phillies lefty gave up homers at an unsustainably high 22.2% rate per fly ball last year. He has some positive regression coming in the home run department, and his improved velocity (back to pre-2023 levels) led to eight strikeouts and one walk through five innings against Cincinnati in his first start.
The Phillies bullpen has had two blowups already — one against Atlanta on Opening Day and one against Cincinnati in extra innings. Connor Brogdon was a large part of those meltdowns, and he's been traded. Even though Jeff Hoffman and José Alvarado are likely down for the Phillies, they have a top five bullpen and Washington has barely touched the pen through two days.
The Nationals also haven't used top two relievers Hunter Harvey or Kyle Finnegan much in the latter half of the week, so both could see some work late in this game to help our under. Philadelphia's improved bullpen and defense makes them a sneaky early season under team, especially while the weather conditions are helping keep the ball in the yard.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
Athletics vs. Tigers
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+158 | 8.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -138 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-188 | 8.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +115 |
Starting Pitchers: Joe Boyle vs. Jack Flaherty
I understand that Oakland isn't trying to win games or compete, but starting the current version of Joe Boyle is bold given how little he's been able to command the ball. Boyle threw 18 innings in spring and while he struck out 19, the 15 walks should sound alarm bells. Boyle then allowed seven runs with four walks and four strikeouts in 2.2 innings in his first Oakland start of the year.
Boyle's stuff also isn't dominant enough to make up for his poor command. The righty has a solid fastball, but it's hardly elite. It has a 99 Stuff+ since he joined the majors. Boyle gets a matchup with Detroit and Jack Flaherty.
As a lineup, the Tigers rank dead average in both chase rate and swinging strike rate. Maybe Boyle is locating, in which case he has the upside to produce more than a strikeout per inning at MLB level. Until Boyle proves he has MLB starter command, I'll be looking to bet against him.
The most interesting element of Flaherty's Detroit debut is that he didn't need the overwhelming fastball velocity to be effective. In the past, his success was closely tied to his fastball velocity. When he didn't have it, Flaherty was often hit hard. His fastball averaged 93.5, just up from 93.2 last year, and yet his swinging strike rate in his start leaped from 10.7% last year to 13.8%.
Flaherty got around this fastball issue by relying heavily on the slider. The fastball looks like a minus pitch, so he increased the usage on the breaking ball and improved dramatically. I'm skeptical of how long this will work until the good teams catch on. It likely makes Flaherty a fade later, but I'll back Detroit on Sunday. Especially when you consider Mason Miller is likely unavailable for Oakland, I'd lay up to -175 on Detroit.
Pick: Tigers ML (-175)
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White Sox vs. Royals
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+108 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -192 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-126 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +158 |
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs Alec Marsh
Crochet has arguably been the breakout pitcher of the young 2024 season and the market has not yet fully upgraded him to his stuff potential. It was never a matter of arm talent for the White Sox lefty, it came down to durability and workload management. His stuff always popped in college and his brief time as a Major League reliever, which is what prompted him to be a first round MLB Draft pick in the first place.
He has three pitches — fastball, cutter, slider — that all grade out as above average by Stuff+. All three have generated whiff rates above 27% thus far, and the best compliment you can give to Crochet's stuff is that his zone contact rate is way down at 72% throughout his first two starts.
Not only did Crochet shove against the Tigers mediocre offense, but he allowed one run through seven innings with eight strikeouts against a Braves lineup that was historically good last season — especially against southpaws.
Each year, there are a handful of pitchers that the market takes some time to adjust to. I don't expect it to be long before Crochet is properly priced because he has gaudy stuff and strikeout numbers, but the White Sox lefty still has a 4.27 ERA projection from THE BAT and a sub 9.00 K/9 rate. Crochet is smashing the preseason public projections, and his Stuff+ metric at 113 with above average command is near ace level material.
Compare that to the extremely middling command (94 Location+ per FanGraphs) of Alec Marsh, and the White Sox should not be underdogs in the first five innings on Sunday. I'd bet White Sox +0.5 first five to -140.
Pick: White Sox F5 +0.5 (-130)
