Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kev has that job for Friday, July 3.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 10 -104o / -118u | +176 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 10 -104o / -118u | -210 |
Both the Twins (5th) and Yankees (9th) rank top-five this season in wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Also, the Twins offense ranks third overall in the past 30 days! They are healthy and on fire, despite the lack of contribution from 2025 breakout Luke Keaschall.
While Gerrit Cole is one of the best pitchers of the past 10 years, he is struggling in recent outings. He has a 5.95 ERA in four starts since June 9, with a 4.68 xERA and 4.30 xFIP.
Cole has flashed brilliance at times this season, but the consistency is not there in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.
On the opposing mound, the Twins will feature rookie Mike Paredes. Paredes has a 4.26 ERA, backed by a 5.42 xERA, 5.35 xFIP, and 5.35 SIERA. In other words, he is bad.
The Yankees' offense is one of the worst in baseball in the past 30 days (87 wRC+), yet they should tee off against the mediocre Paredes. Beyond Paredes, the Twins' bullpen is one of baseball's worst this season. New York will have plenty of opportunities to get right tonight.
Picks: Twins/Yankees over 10 Total Runs (-104)
New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Picks
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 9 -106o / -114u | -108 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 9 -106o / -114u | -108 |
The Braves' offense is the worst in baseball this past month. Their 65 wRC+ in this span is well below the second-worst (Guardians at 81). Even with their star catcher back in the lineup, this offense cannot get going. They have averaged three runs per game since June 10!
Despite scoring 10 runs in the past two games, we can discount any spike in production due to the Cardinals' poor starting pitching.
Christian Scott takes the mound for the Mets and looks to continue lowering his 3.20 ERA. While this ERA is backed by a poor 4.62 xERA, his 4.10 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA are solid.
Also, Scott is facing a predominantly left-handed lineup today. The Braves will likely start at least six lefties today, yet could start up to seven. This is often not ideal for RHP, but Scott has reverse splits this season.
He has an 18.7% K-BB, .288 wOBA, and 3.54 xFIP against LHP. These three key metrics are far worse against RHP.
The Braves will be starting Grant Holmes, who has even worse peripheral metrics than Scott. He has a 3.96 ERA, backed by a 4.73 xERA, 4.56 xFIP, and 4.67 SIERA. If he struggles, the Braves will not have much to work with in the bullpen.
Injuries have decimated them. Robert Suarez is out while Reynaldo Lopez is back in the rotation. Also, stud LHP Dylan Lee has pitched in back-to-back games.
With the Mets' offense producing at an average rate over the past month and with Francisco Lindor returning, expect them to handle business in Atlanta.
Picks: New York Mets Moneyline (+100)
Marlins vs Athletics Picks
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 10.5 -112o / -108u | +120 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 10.5 -112o / -108u | -142 |
Tyler Phillips has a very fake 3.02 ERA. This is backed by a 4.43 xERA, 4.61 xFIP, and 4.71 SIERA. He is not good and heads to Sacramento's minor league dimensions. Furthermore, he is terrible on the road.
- Phillips at home: 1.16 ERA, 11.2% K-BB, .275 wOBA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.09 xFIP
- Phillips on road: 5.67 ERA, 1.7% K-BB, .346 wOBA, 1.44 WHIP, 5.37 xFIP
While the Athletics have lost several key offensive pieces in the past week, they are still the second-best offensive team at home this season (120 wRC+)
Meanwhile, opposing starter Jack Perkins has been very unlucky this season. He has a 6.00 ERA, backed by a 3.77 xERA, 3.96 xFIP, and 3.35 SIERA. He is very skilled, yet pitching in Sacramento will inflate any pitcher's numbers over the long term.
Perkins is worse at home, but he, like the aforementioned Christian Scott, has reverse splits against LHP.
- Perkins vs LHP: 23% K-BB, .303 wOBA, 3.30 xFIP
- Perkins vs RHP: 16.5% K-BB, .344 wOBA, 4.59 xFIP
The Marlins offense is excellent over the past two weeks (118 wRC+), and they are better against RHP than LHP. However, they can feature up to seven lefties against RHP. If Perkins continues his reverse-split trend this season, he should be capable of mowing down this offense, even at home.
Picks: Athletics Moneyline (-127)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, July 3
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- Twins/Yankees over 10 Total Runs (-104)
- New York Mets Moneyline (+100)
- Athletics Moneyline (-127)
