Thursday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
There are 10 games and multiple betting opportunities on MLB's Thursday slate.
Our betting experts have looked over the board and found value in multiple spots, including Diamondbacks vs. Braves, Brewers vs. Phillies, Padres vs. Blue Jays and White Sox vs. Mets.
Continue reading as the best bets for Thursday, July 20 are below.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves
Thursday, July 20 12:20 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Diamondbacks Moneyline (+165)  |
A team can win only so many games with defense and speed, right? The Diamondbacks are far from dominant offensively and have a bottom-10 pitching staff by most metrics.
Can they actually win the NL West without elite hitting and pitching?
I’m also not sure how elite the defense is. The Diamondbacks are 11th in Defensive Runs Saved, although they’re fifth in Outs Above Average and first in fielding percentage.
The Diamondbacks put the ball in play and have the second-most steals in baseball. In short, they make the opponent play their style and don't gravitate toward the three true outcomes.
When thinking of Zac Gallen, great command often comes to mind. He locates his pitches well — specifically his fastball on the corners (32.7% CSW!) and his secondaries at the bottom of the zone.
But maybe he hasn’t been locating those secondary pitches so well. The Hard Contact and Barrel rates on his curveball-change mix has skyrocketed year over year, resulting in a career-worst batted-ball profile.
Gallen is allowing fewer free passes than ever (5.3%) so his FIP is great (2.90), but I think he’s leaving stuff in the zone, and hitters are making him pay.
It’s all added up to a 3.66 xERA and Gallen looks more like the guy we saw in 2021 than in 2022.
By Pitching+, Gallen is the seventh-best qualified starting pitcher in baseball. He still has elite fastball command, but I’d project him as a mid-3.00s ERA guy in the future.
On the other side, I'm a bit worried about the Braves bullpen Thursday, as there are a trio of arms on the IL and the others have been used over the past two days. However, a great offense fixes everything.
Since June 1, the Braves have a .907 OPS, a .367 xwOBA, an 11.1% Barrel rate and a 138 wRC+, but I think they're being a bit overvalued.
Spencer Strider's fastball is elite, but he only throws three pitches. The Stuff+ model rates his slider slightly above average and his changeup as below average, so when that fastball isn’t obliterating batters, guys can jump on Strider.
Strider lost some velocity and spin on his fastball earlier this season and the results were disastrous.
Strider is likely the best pitcher in the National League, but he's also highly volatile. Meanwhile, we know what we're getting with Gallen.
So, I'll buy the Diamondbacks as big underdogs.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline | Play to +140 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Brewers vs. Phillies
Thursday, July 20 12:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Brewers Moneyline (+106) |
By D.J. James
Why is Corbin Burnes an underdog?!?
One of the best pitchers in the National League is an underdog in Thursday’s matinee between the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies. Typically, the Phillies would carry a tremendous edge over Milwaukee, but with Christian Yelich looking like himself again, the Brewers are starting to hit better. Additionally, the Brewers also have the better bullpen. Simply put, they should be favored in this game.
Burnes owns a 1.89 ERA over three starts this month. On the season, he has a 3.73 ERA against a 3.57 xERA and his Average Exit Velocity (86 mph) ranks in the 93rd percentile. His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 86th percentile and his strikeout rate is nearly 25%.
The Brewers own a 94 wRC+ off of righties in July. However, they have an 11.8% walk rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Taijuan Walker, the Phillies starter, has nearly a 10% walk rate, so the Brewers should be on base early and often. As an added bonus, Milwaukee has eight hitters with a .319+ xwOBA off of righties in July (at least 10 plate appearances).
In addition, the Brewers bullpen has been great with a 2.67 xFIP this month.
Walker, as noted above, has control problems. His xERA and ERA are right in line at 4.00, but his Hard-Hit Rate is 39% and his Average Exit Velocity is 88.6 mph.
The Phillies have a 121 wRC+ with a 6.2% walk rate and a 20.2% strikeout rate off righties in July, but most of those righties aren’t on Burnes’ tier. Philadelphia also has a weaker bullpen and may need its relievers more if Walker struggles.
Burnes shouldn’t be an underdog against a weaker starting pitcher, especially with the Brewers’ bats picking up steam. Look for Milwaukee to score some runs early and back the Brewers to -125.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline | Play to -125 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Padres vs. Blue Jays
Thursday, July 20 1:07 p.m. ET MLB Network |
Padres Moneyline (-118) |
By D.J. James
Chris Bassitt has had only one good month this season. His May ERA was under 4.00, but otherwise, he has a 4.12 ERA and a 4.53 xERA on the season. His Average Exit Velocity is up 2.6 mph, his Hard-Hit Rate is up 5.6% and his strikeout rate is also down a tick.
Bassitt will go up against one of the hottest pitchers in baseball in Blake Snell. Yes, Snell has been the beneficiary of some good fortune with a 2.71 ERA against a 3.84 xERA, but both marks are better than Bassitt's. Snell is also striking out 32.4% of hitters, which is in line with when he won the Cy Young Award in 2018.
The Padres have a 140 wRC+, a 12% walk rate, a 15.9% strikeout rate and a .888 OPS this month when facing right-handed pitching. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have a 106 wRC+ with a 8.7% walk rate, a 21.7% strikeout rate and a .712 OPS in minimal at-bats against lefties.
San Diego's bullpen has had some issues this season, but Snell should be able to pitch deep enough into this game to negate any possible mishaps.
The Padres clearly have an edge in starting pitching, so bet the Padres to -135.
Pick: Padres Moneyline | Play to -135 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Mets
Thursday, July 20 1:10 p.m. ET MLB Network |
1st 5 Innings Under 5.5 (-132) |
By Doug Ziefel
New York will get a boost on the hill as Jose Quintana is set to make his season debut, while the White Sox will send Michael Kopech to the mound as they attempt to salvage this series. Kopech has been inconsistent this season, but has the stuff to keep Chicago in this game.
The White Sox have had a disappointing year and have struggled with both injuries and inconsistency on offense. Chicago ranks 24th in xwOBACON and also has the second-lowest xwOBA in baseball.
Expectations should be tempered for Quintana’s first start, but if he’s close to the guy we saw last year, he could shut down the White Sox.
Quintana is coming off an impressive 2022 season, during which he pitched to a 2.93 ERA over 32 starts. He was tremendous at generating soft contact as he ranked in the 89th percentile in average exit velocity and was in the top 25% in terms of chase rate.
The Mets’ bats have come to life in this series, but the success hasn’t come from the typical run producers. Rookie catcher Francisco Alvarez is red hot and fellow rookie Brett Baty recently broke out of his slump.
However, that’s not the best indicator of success moving forward. With Starling Marte out and both Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil struggling, it’s hard to project much consistency from the Mets.
This may be the spot for Kopech to get back on track. Prior to his most recent start, Kopech had a 2.85 ERA through 11 starts spanning from May to June. However, even in that span, he has struggled to command the baseball.
If — yes, it’s a big if — Kopech can limit the free passes, he should be able to contain the Mets.
This total is too high as both starters have clear avenues to success and should keep the scoring to a minimum, at least early.
Take the under in the first five innings.
Pick: Under 5.5 Runs in First 5 Innings | Play to 5 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
