Astros vs. Rockies Odds & Pick (Wednesday, August 19): Fade Colorado’s Bullpen at Coors Field

Astros vs. Rockies Odds

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After two games in Houston, the home-and-home series between the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies shifts to Denver. Houston was able to win both previous games by a 2-1 margin and extend its winning streak to six games.

It’ll be interesting to see if pitching continues to be theme at Coors Field, where there has been an average total of 12.3 runs scored per game in 13 contests there this season.

Two young pitches take the mound on Wednesday night in this matchup. Colorado rookie Ryan Castellani is scheduled to make his second start at Coors Field. On the other side, the Astros will hand the ball to Framber Valdez. who will face Colorado for the first time in his career.

In Castellani’s only start at Coors Field, he pitched relatively well against the Texas Rangers. He gave up just one run and walked two batters to go along with seven strikeouts, despite not making it out of the fifth inning. In both of his starts this season, Castellani has yet to make it through the fifth inning.

In contrast, Valdez has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts for Houston.

That said, the bullpens will more than likely have a say in tonight's game. One team's dominance over the other in this department could provide the clue to the winner of this matchup.

Colorado Rockies

Castellani is off to a decent start in his rookie year. While he’s yet to pick up his first major-league win, he also hasn’t been responsible for a loss in any appearance.

According to Baseball Savant, Castellani has had success throwing a combination of five pitches: four-seamer (50.7 percent), changeup (16.9%), slider (15.5%), curveball (12.2%) and sinker (4.7%). He’s only allowed two hits off his four-seamer and batters have yet to get a hit off his secondary pitches.

That explains why he has a 1.04 ERA and 0.58 WHIP in his two games this season. In eight innings, he’s already picked up 10 strikeouts and he’s been able to limit them to ground balls with his 2.25 GB/FB ratio more often than not when batters contact.

Houston Astros

Valdez enters Wednesday's game with a 1-2 record, but boasts a solid 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His 2.55 FIP is almost spotless and he’s been able to reduce his BB/9 ratio from 5.60 in 2019 to 2.28, all while increasing his K/9 ratio from 8.66 to 9.13 this season.

The stuff was always there for Valdez. Now, he’s become a more mature pitcher in his third year in the big leagues.

To get an even better idea of how good Valdez has been this season, he has a 3.0 GB/FB ratio and only 19 percent of balls batted against him are fly balls.

All that put together shows Valdez is a pitcher truly on the rise.

Betting Analysis

Prior to analyzing this game, I had a strong lean toward Houston. After looking more in-depth into this matchup, my sentiment remains the same. Much like his two previous starts, Castellani is unlikely to go deep into this game. That means Colorado’s bullpen will likely need to go a minimum of five innings.

Despite their 4.60 ERA, Colorado’s bullpen is still in the bottom half of all of Major League Baseball. Contrast that with the Astros bullpen, which is ranked in the Top 7 overall with a 3.42 ERA.

In my opinion, Colorado’s bullpen is worth the fade in this spot. I can only look to the away side and be even more buoyed by the fact that Houston is 7-1 for 7.71 units in their last eight games at Coors Field.

Needless to say, that's a trend I can certainly get behind.

I’ll gladly back the Astros to make it three consecutive wins against the Rockies and extend their current winning streak to seven games.

The PICK: Astros ML -150 (Play up to -155)

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