We hit both MLB NRFI picks on Monday to start the week off on the right foot. On Tuesday, we have every team in action, with plenty of first-inning betting opportunities.
I've narrowed it down to my top five plays, including some fun long shots.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions for Tuesday.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — Tuesday, April 22
Orioles vs. Nationals NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Dean Kremer vs. Mitchell Parker
I'm showing value on both the full-game YRFI and the Nationals specifically, but I prefer the latter.
That's mostly because Nationals starter Mitchell Parker has been very solid this year, and the Orioles have a team wRC+ of just 55 against southpaws.
Washington gets a much softer pitching matchup with Dean Kremer, who has an ERA north of 6.00 overall and 5.00 his first time through the order.
The Nats are also an extremely top-heavy lineup, with their first three hitters boasting wRC+ marks over 120 and nobody else in the lineup with triple-digit marks.
That means those first three bats should produce the bulk of their 4.29 implied runs, with a solid chance they come in the first inning.
As always with these single-team bets, I'm risking a half unit. Other options include the Nats' first-inning moneyline at +310 on DraftKings in the three-way market, or -105 on Caesars in the two-way market, where ties are treated as a push.
Phillies vs. Mets NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez vs. Griffin Canning
This one snuck into range for value, with FanDuel dropping the line a bit. But it's hard to pass up at the current price.
The biggest factor is the Mets' hitters' splits against lefties, as their first four batters all have a .350 or better wOBA against southpaws since the start of 2024.
With Cristopher Sanchez also having reverse splits — his xFIP is slightly higher early in games than overall — that gives the Mets a strong early projection.
The Phillies aren't hopeless here either, though. They're a tough overall offense that's taking on Griffin Canning, who finished 2024 with a 5.19 ERA. Canning has started this season at 3.43, but I expect some regression to hit soon.
Dodgers vs. Cubs NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Dustin May vs. Shota Imanaga
I want some exposure to an early run in this game, which is another solid weather spot at Wrigley Field. Weather Edge has the predicted conditions boosting scoring over 20%, and that's based on a very solid 86-game sample size.
I slightly prefer the Dodgers' team specific line over the regular YRFI, due to the splits exhibited by both pitchers.
Shota Imanaga is the better overall player, but he has a 3.91 first-time-through-the-order xFIP in his career that decreases each time through the rotation.
Dustin May has fairly standard splits that get slightly worse each time he faces a hitter.
While my model technically likes the Dodgers' line down to +170, I'd pivot to either the full-game YRFI or the Dodgers' first-inning moneyline if you can't get the +185.
Rays vs. Diamondbacks NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Zack Littell vs. Brandon Pfaadt
The biggest factor here is getting even money on a YRFI in a game with a nine-run total.
Typically, we have to pay some juice with a total that high.
Beyond that, both Zack Littell and Brandon Pfaadt have slightly below average first-time-through-the-order splits. Neither are terrible, but they also aren't pitchers who are particularly hard to get to early.
Arizona's lineup is also pretty top heavy, and while the Rays' first three hitters have struggled this season, they're a strong group on paper.
Plus, they have plenty of power in the middle of the order if they can get there.
Brewers vs. Giants NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana vs. Jordan Hicks
We have tough hitting weather and a 7.5-run total in San Francisco on Tuesday, making the -122 NRFI at BetRivers stand out.
Most of the value here is in the off line posted there, but there's other reasons to like this one.
The Giants are considerably worse against lefties (86 wRC+ vs. LHP, 106 vs. RHP), and Jose Quintana is reasonably strong early in games.
Jordan Hicks is a former closer whose numbers as a starter are much better his first time through the order. Also, he's taking on a Brewers team that isn't especially threatening at the top of their lineup.
The furthest I'd go on this line is the -135 available at Caesars and ESPN BET.
