We took Father's Day off yesterday after a mostly flat week in which we profited right around one unit.
I've since refreshed the model with current player stats, which should help with precision moving forward.
We have three more MLB NRFI & YRFI bets and model picks for Monday, June 17.
MLB NRFI & YRFI Bets: Monday, June 17
Padres vs. Phillies
Starting Pitchers: Cristopher Sanchez vs. Randy Vasquez
The story of the slate today is all of the games with massively favorable weather for hitters. Of the nine games, one-third of them have weather forecasts that historically boost scoring by at least 15%, according to the Weather Edge Tool from our friends at RotoGrinders.
My intuition is that effect is more pronounced early in games, for two reasons. At least for evening/night games, the temperatures are warmer to start the game than at the end, which helps hitters.
Forecasts are less accurate the further out their made as well, so it's possible the favorable conditions change by the later innings.
That all explains the 9.5-run total in this game.
Cristopher Sanchez has solid overall numbers, but he owns a higher xFIP his first time through the order.
Randy Vasquez has a 4.93 ERA, and that goes up even higher his first time through the order.
This one would probably be a value even without those pitcher stats, though, thanks to the high total.
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Yusei Kikuchi vs. Nick Pivetta
Our lone NRFI today is this one, as this game is one of the few without conditions that heavily benefit hitters by virtue of being played indoors. It has just a 7.5-run total, as both teams are average or worse against the handedness of the pitcher they're facing, and both starters have ERAs in the threes.
Nick Pivetta checks all the boxes, with a 3.88 overall ERA that drops to 2.95 his first time through the order, and a similar effect when looking at his xFIP.
The reason this one isn't projecting for more of an edge is Yusei Kikuchi. His ERA and xFIP both rise slightly early in games.
That's a bit misleading though, as they rise to just 3.33 and 3.51, respectively.
Still, I wouldn't take this one past -125 (the line at the time of writing on Caesars) and I obviously prefer the FanDuel line — go to "first inning over/under 0.5 runs" under the innings tab for the best price.
Dodgers vs. Rockies
Starting Pitchers: James Paxton vs. Cal Quantrill
This game has a 12-run total as of this morning, with some books already jumping to 12.5, so we're expecting offense.
We have arguably the best lineup in baseball in the Dodgers, traveling to Coors Field — the best hitters park in baseball.
As if that weren't enough, the temperatures are expected to be in the 90s with double-digit mph winds blowing out to right field tonight.
The traditional YRFI here is extremely juiced, although it could still make sense as a parlay piece. However, I have a mean runs scored in this one of around 1.7, so getting big plus-money on two or more is a strong value.
The Dodgers are taking on Cal Quantrill, who has a 3.30 overall ERA (his underlying stats are all about a run worse). His xFIP is 4.41, and it jumps to 4.97 his first time through the order.
It's not all on them to score, though. Colorado is much better against left-handed pitching, and it's taking on lefty James Paxton. Paxton has a 3.92 ERA, but his ERA predictors are all on the other side of 5.00.
Both pitchers are due for some serious regression, and games at Coors have a way of making that regression hit.
