MLB season is heating up, and we have a full 15-game Friday slate, starting at 2:20 p.m. ET with Pirates vs. Cubs in Chicago.
I've got four MLB Home Run Props and home-run picks from these games: Diamondbacks vs. Phillies, Twins vs. Blue Jays, Guardians vs. Braves and Astros vs. Mariners.
MLB Home Run Props: Grant's HR Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:07 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
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Diamondbacks vs Phillies HR Prop
Diamondbacks DH Ketel Marte gets a tough matchup vs. Phillies SP Jesus Luzardo, who has been great this season, but this price is way too high.
While Luzardo is a great overall pitcher, he's a slightly below-average matchup for righty power when considering his heavy splits.
Marte has been one of the best home run hitters in the league over the last two seasons when healthy, and I have the true odds here under +450, making this a great bet.
Pick: Ketel Marte Home Run (+520 or Better)
Twins vs Blue Jays Home Run Pick
Blue Jays 3B Kazuma Okamoto has been good to start the season and should end up around 30 homers by the end of the season.
He gets a great matchup going up against the Twins' Simeon Woods Richardson, who grades out as an above-average matchup for righty power and gave up a high 1.44 HR/9 to righties last season.
This ballpark is a plus for HRs, and these odds are far too high.
I have the true odds under +500.
Pick: Kazuma Okamoto Home Run (+570 or Better)
Guardians vs Braves Home Run Prop
Braves C Drake Baldwin has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, and he gets a great matchup here.
Slade Cecconi will start for the Guardians, and he's been an absolute gas can for lefty power in his career, allowing a high 1.64 HR/9.
The weather should be around average for hitting, making these odds far too high.
I have the true odds around +420, making this an excellent bet.
Pick: Drake Baldwin Home Run (+490 or Better)
Astros vs Mariners HR Pick
Yordan Alvarez has been one of the best hitters in the league this season.
The Astros DH is in a great spot going up against the Mariners SP Emerson Hancock, who has been an above-average matchup for lefty power in his career, and he allowed a massive 2.30 HR/9 to lefties last season.
This ballpark is below average for home runs, but the weather should actually be decent in Seattle.
I have the true odds for Alvarez under +300.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+310 or Better)
