MLB Best Bets: 3 Picks, Props & Predictions for Wednesday, June 12
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
  | 1:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
There are 15 MLB games on Wednesday, June 12, and our staff has locked in three MLB Best Bets, including picks for Rockies vs Twins, Guardians vs Reds and Marlins vs Mets.
Read on for our three MLB Best Bets: Picks, Props & Predictions below.
Rockies vs. Twins
By D.J. James
Pablo López was an elite arm in 2023, but his results in 2024 thus far have been subpar. His peripherals are favorable, but he just has not yet put it together. Yes, he is facing a below-average Colorado Rockies team Wednesday, but his performances over the last month have not been encouraging.
He and the Minnesota Twins will face Austin Gomber on Wednesday. Gomber has thrived off favorable fortune, and very much the polar opposite of López, he has unfavorable peripherals.
The Twins definitely have the better lineup here. However, they have an 80 wRC+ with a 4.7% walk rate against lefties over the last month. They have six batters with a .325+ xwOBA. Yes, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Manuel Margot are over .400, but the latter two have struggled against lefty breaking balls. Gomber could be the mismatch to neutralize those two and provide an edge to Colorado.
The Rockies have an injury-riddled lineup. They currently have several bats on the Injured List, which has led them to a 76 wRC+ off righties in the last month. They have four active batter above a .325 xwOBA, but six above .305. This is not spectacular, but the majority of their lineup can battle. Since López is not striking many hitters out, the Rockies could string together some runs early.
López is the better starting pitcher in this game and will have better results than Gomber by season’s end. On the other hand, he has not been as sharp of late, and neither team has a lockdown bullpen. Since Gomber has a nice slider and knuckle-curve, he can up his off-speed utilization and keep the Twins in check.
Bet Colorado as a massive road underdog here.
Pick: Rockies ML (+200)
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Guardians vs. Reds
By Tony Sartori
Cincinnati hands the ball to left-hander Nick Lodolo, who has been excellent in his third MLB season. Through nine starts, the former No. 7 overall pick is 6-2 with a commanding 2.92 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.
Regression is unlikely based on his underlying metrics. Currently, Lodolo ranks in the 75th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA and barrel rate.
We are going to back him in the prop market, considering the southpaw ranks in the 71st percentile or higher in chase, whiff and strikeout rates. He just recorded seven punchouts in his last outing, and I believe he will do so once again.
The Guardians struggle much more against southpaws than they do against right-handers, at least in the strikeout department, as they rank in the bottom half of the league in strikeout rate when facing left-handed pitching.
Pick: Nick Lodolo Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 | Play to +100)
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Marlins vs. Mets
By D.J. James
David Peterson is not going to blow anyone away. He held a 5.00+ ERA in 2023 for a reason, but his ground-ball rate through a couple starts in 2024 has been a positive sign. This is one consistent attribute of Peterson’s, as he ranked in the 91st percentile last season. He has limited barrels when pitching in 2024, too. If he can keep these in check, he could have a favorable outcome, once again.
His opponent will be Braxton Garrett and the Miami Marlins.
Garrett has been awful and so have the Marlins. The veteran southpaw has had some sour results, with a 5.81 ERA against a sub-4.00 xERA. He may keep the ball on the ground, but opponents are averaging 92.9 mph off the bat, putting Garrett in the first percentile. He also ranks in the fifth percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He is shockingly comparable to Peterson.
The kicker is the Marlins have the highest ground-ball rate as a team at over 51%.
The Mets are still high but have not come close to Miami. In fact, Miami has a 78 wRC+ off lefties in the last month, while the Mets are at 149. That is an astounding discrepancy.
Finally, Miami and New York both have average bullpens, so there is not much of an edge either way in relief.
Go with Peterson and the Mets to continue hammering lefties.
Pick: Mets ML (-145 | Bet to -165)
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