The New York Yankees host the Minnesota Twins on July 4, 2026. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MNNT.
The Yankees are -162 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +136 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Twins vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Twins vs Yankees Prediction
- Twins vs Yankees Pick: Yankees ML (-158 or Better)
My Twins vs Yankees best bet is on New York. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Twins vs Yankees Odds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 10 102o / -124u | +136 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 10 102o / -124u | -162 |
- Twins vs Yankees moneyline: Twins +136, Yankees -162
- Twins vs Yankees over/under: 10 (+102 / -124)
- Twins vs Yankees spread: Twins +1.5 (-154), Yankees -1.5 (+128)
Twins vs Yankees Probable Pitchers
| Zebby Matthews | Stat | Brendan Beck |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 0-0 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 4.15 / 4.26 | ERA / xERA | 6 / 11.81 |
| 4.76 / 4.26 | FIP / xFIP | 9.78 / 7.46 |
| 14.8% | K-BB% | -15.4 |
| 37.5% | GB% | 22.2 |
| .259 | BABIP | .125 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 101 | Location+ | 76 |
Twins vs Yankees MLB Betting Preview
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
Now is the time to sell high on right-hander Zebby Matthews, who takes the mound for the Minnesota Twins.
Although he is coming off a few quality starts, his underlying metrics suggest he has gotten away with poor pitching. Entering this matchup, Matthews ranks among the bottom half of qualified pitchers in xERA, xBA, and strikeout rate.
The most concerning part of his profile is the type of contact he allows. This season, the right-hander ranks in the 23rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed and the fifth percentile in barrel rate allowed.
That is a recipe for disaster against a New York Yankees lineup that relies on power to produce runs.
It is no surprise, then, that Matthews has struggled against New York. In two career head-to-head meetings, he is 0-2 with a 12.46 ERA.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
From the other side, the current Yankees lineup owns a .435 batting average, .826 slugging percentage and a .545 wOBA across 25 combined plate appearances against Matthews. This success aligns with Matthews’ difficulty limiting hard contact.
New York can generate runs quickly, considering it ranks in the top seven in the league in runs scored per game, slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs.
Meanwhile, the Yankees are going with a bullpen game following the news of Carlos Rodon hitting the IL.
Although the long-term news is bad, the silver lining is that New York should be alright in this matchup with one of the league's best bullpens. Among relief corps this season, the Yankees rank second in ERA, first in xERA, third in FIP, and sixth in WAR.
Twins vs Yankees Pick, Betting Analysis
New York's commanding bullpen is surely an advantage against Matthews, both statistically and analytically. This fact is further exacerbated when you consider Matthews' track record against the Twins.
Not only does the pitching advantage favor the home team, but the hitting edge does as well. This season, New York ranks ahead of Minnesota in slugging percentage, OPS, and home runs.
Pick: Yankees ML (-158 or Better, FanDuel)
