The Chicago Cubs host the Milwaukee Brewers on August 20, 2025. First pitch from Wrigley Field is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSWI.
Wrigley Field is expected to offer very pitcher-friendly conditions on Wednesday evening, leading to a low betting total of 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Cubs prediction below with odds, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Brewers vs Cubs Prediction
- Brewers vs Cubs picks: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline -115 (DraftKings, Play to -125)
My Brewers vs Cubs pick is Brewers Moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Cubs Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 7 103o / -125u | -115 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -187 | 7 103o / -125u | -105 |
Brewers vs Cubs Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) | Stat | RHP Colin Rea (CHC) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 0.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.89/2.65 | ERA /xERA | 3.99/4.75 |
| 3.29/3.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.60/4.48 |
| 1.13 | WHIP | 1.28 |
| 23.6% | K-BB% | 11.2% |
| 38.9% | GB% | 38.7% |
| 120 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 104 | Location+ | 100 |
Nick Martin’s Brewers vs Cubs Preview
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview, Analysis
Misiorowski returned from a three-week layoff due to a tibia contusion on Friday in Cincinnati. He struggled mightily with command and ultimately finished with the worst stat line of his career, allowing five earned runs while managing only four outs. The one positive was that his average velocities were on par with his averages this season, and there is no concern regarding the health of his throwing arm entering this matchup.
Through the first eight starts of his career, Misiorowski is sporting a mildly disappointing ERA of 3.89 but, on a game-by-game basis, he has been better than that mark suggests and also seems to have suffered from some bad luck. Two horrid outings have tanked Misiorowski's ERA, but his other six appearances have been solid.
He holds an xERA of 2.65 and struck out 36% of batters while allowing an xBA of only .180. He holds an elite Stuff+ rating of 120, as you would expect, and a Pitching+ rating of 128.
Milwaukee's bullpen has remained in strong form of late, as over the last 30 days it has pitched to an ERA of 3.13 and an xFIP of 3.89.
The Brewers rank second in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching since July 1st and hold an OPS of .813 versus righties in that span. They also have the third-highest BB/K ratio in MLB in that span, and maintain the fourth-highest line drive rate.
Their lineup will be without two key pieces in this matchup, as Joey Ortiz will join Jackson Chourio on the sidelines after fouling a pitch off his knee on Tuesday.
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview, Analysis
After a disastrous finish to the 2024 season, Rea has responded with solid back-of-the-rotation results, posting an ERA of 4.00 and an xFIP of 4.48. He's remained comparably effective recently, pitching to an ERA of 4.25 and an xFIP of 4.28 in five starts since the All-Star break.
Rea's pitch metrics have remained below average recently, as he holds a Stuff+ of 95 and a Pitching+ of 92 throughout his last five starts, and he's managed a strikeout minus walk rate of only 11.6%. He does produce fly-balls at a higher-than-average rate, which could play well given the expected conditions at Wrigley Field tonight.
The Cubs' offense was one of the best in the league early on this season, but has struggled mightily of late, largely due to the gigantic dropoff in production from Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong compared to earlier in the season. Tucker rested both games of Tuesday's doubleheader in an effort to help him buck his slump, and it's currently uncertain if he will return for this matchup.
Since July 1st, the Cubs rank 23rd in wRC+ versus righties and rank 28th in on-base percentage in that span. Their hard-hit rate has dropped to 33% during that time frame, and they hold the 11th-highest soft contact rate in MLB.
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Pick
While Tuesday's back-to-back wins could help turn the tide for a team in need of some positive momentum, it's hard to see how this matchup is priced so closely, even if the expected conditions at Wrigley may suggest somewhat of a low-event slog.
It is somewhat of a scary spot to back Misiorowski given that his only start following a brief IL stint was a disaster. Still, his upside is significantly higher than Rea's, and there is no doubting who will prove to be the superior starter over a large sample of work. The Brewers have been one of the league's most productive teams versus righties recently, while the Cubs have fallen apart with two of their most important batters fighting through some awful stretches of play.
At -125 or better, there looks to be value in backing the Brewers to become the first team in baseball to hit 80 wins on Wednesday.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -115 (DraftKings, Play to -125)
Moneyline
As outlined, backing the Brewers to win is my favorite pick from this matchup.
Run Line (Spread)
Backing the Brewers to cover the run-line at +150 odds also looks to provide value.
Over/Under
My lean would be with the over at the current total of 6.5 runs, and if closer to game-time, it becomes apparent that the hitting conditions may be more reasonable than expected, it could be worth trying to jump in.
