The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins on June 12, 2026. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -148 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+140) on the run line. The Marlins are +126 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-170) on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs (-105 / -115).
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Pirates Predictions, Pick
- Marlins vs Pirates Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 Outs (-162), Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135)
My Marlins vs Pirates best bets are on Braxton Ashcraft to get 18 outs or more and Ryan O'Hearn to record Over 1.5 hits, runs and runs batted-in combined. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Pirates Odds, Spread, Line
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +126 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -148 |
- Marlins vs Pirates moneyline: Marlins +126, Pirates -148
- Marlins vs Pirates over/under: 8.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Marlins vs Pirates spread: Marlins +1.5 (-170), Pirates -1.5 (+140)
Marlins vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| Sandy Alcantara (RHP, MIA) | Stat | Braxton Ashcraft (RHP, PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 4.33 / 4.06 | ERA / xERA | 3.28 / 2.95 |
| 4.06 / 4.23 | FIP / xFIP | 3.11 / 3.20 |
| 11.2 | K-BB% | 21.4 |
| 44.6 | GB% | 45.5 |
| .298 | BABIP | .298 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 104 |
| 104 | Location+ | 104 |
Marlins vs Pirates Expert MLB Pick
Miami Marlins Preview
We have two hard-throwing, ground-ball-generating righties in this one. The Marlins will send Sandy Alcantarato the bump. They have not gotten the season they wanted from him in this critical year for his contract. Sandy has a 4.43 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP on the year and just an 11% K-BB%. Some will be encouraged by his last two starts:
- 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 7 SO, 1 BB vs. TB
- 7 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 SO, 0 BB vs. WSH
But he's been hit hard even in these two starts. The xBA against in those two is .344 with a .365 xwOBA. Statcast's xERA stat measures quality of contact allowed by each pitcher, adds in strikeouts and walks, and then calculates an ERA-like number. The league average is 4.29 this year among pitchers with 10+ starts. Sandy's at 4.89 in the last two starts, showing that really nothing has gotten better suddenly.
What Alcantara does well is keep right-handed hitters in the ballpark. He's held them to three homers all year with a 55% GB%. They put a bunch of balls in play (18.6% K%), but they're usually balls that you can make plays on. With lefties, it's not the same story. Just a 38% GB% against those hitters, and they've gone yard eight times against him.
The one thing Sandy has figured out as the season has gone on is the command. He's walked just two hitters in his last five starts. That's a 1.5% BB% and a 30.5% Ball%. He's going right at hitters, which has had mixed results. If you don't have really good stuff, you don't really want to throw a bunch of strikes, normally.
The Pirates bring a very splits-dependent lineup to the table, and they're on the side they like to be on tonight. They've done a lot of damage against right-handed starters this year. They will be without a key bat in Oneil Cruzfor several weeks, but they still have four pretty studly hitters in this lineup who rake against lefties. Lowe, Horwitz, Reynolds, and O'Hearn have had great seasons and put a lot of pressure on at the top of the lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Preview
I personally focus on three things when evaluating a pitcher:
- Strikeout rate
- Walk rate
- Ground ball rate
It's simple, but those are the three main inputs into the best ERA predictor stats. Ashcraft is in elite territory in this trio of stats with a 27% K%, a 5% BB%, and a 47% GB%. He's good at all three. The young righty did get banged up against the Braves last time, but still added a 5:0 K:BB to his tally in that one.
This is a bounce-back spot for Ashcraft and for the Bucs. They've had to play six consecutive games against the Braves and Dodgers, so they're happy to see the 34-35 Marlins coming into town. The Marlins are hitting .248/.321/.383 against righties this year with a 21% K% and a .308 xwOBA. They're not a pushover lineup, but they're in the lower half of the league. It's not a very impressive lineup, name-value-wise. They have a good mix of contact (Hicks & Edwards) with power (Stowers & Caissie), but every hitter in the lineup has some hole in their game.
I expect Ashcraft to do well in this one.
The Pirates are rightfully the favorite here at home. But, as a big Pirate fan myself, you can never feel good about the win until the 27th out is recorded. The bullpen has been a disaster. They're going to want to ride Ashcraft for 7+ innings if possible. The BARTOLO app has the Pirates with the #21 bullpen in the league, and I'm thinking that's pretty generous. There are also three guys unavailable, one being their best left-handed reliever Evan Sisk.
The Marlins, with these power lefties, are going to have some good looks in the late innings.
How To Bet My Marlins vs Pirates Pick, Best Bet
I like the Pirates in the first five innings. They definitely have the SP advantage with Ashcraft. I also think it's a particularly nice spot for Ryan O'Hearn. He's a good contact hitter in a prominent lineup spot behind a trio of guys who can get on base, and he hits righties like Sandy Alcantara very well.
I like both pitchers to get through six innings. These teams don't love to go to their bullpen, and these two have both been super efficient, firing strikes at super high rates this year (and particularly in the last month in the case of Alcantara)
Pick: Braxton Ashcraft Over 17.5 Outs (-162), Ryan O'Hearn Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135)
