The Philadelphia Phillies host the Miami Marlins on June 16, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are -174 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Phillies Prediction
- Marlins vs Phillies F5 Under
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Parlay Odds: +234 (FanDuel)
Marlins vs Phillies Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8 -112o / -108u | +146 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8 -112o / -108u | -174 |
- Marlins vs Phillies moneyline: Marlins +146, Phillies -174
- Marlins vs Phillies over/under: 8 (-112 / -108)
- Marlins vs Phillies spread: Marlins +1.5 (-152), Phillies -1.5 (+126)
Marlins vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Tyler Phillips | Stat | Jesus Luzardo |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.8 |
| 1.86 / 3.68 | ERA / xERA | 4.35 / 3.45 |
| 3.50 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | 3.33 / 3.17 |
| 8.2 | K-BB% | 18.7 |
| 46.7 | GB% | 48.1 |
| .266 | BABIP | .343 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 97 | Location+ | 102 |
Marlins vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Story: Otto Lopez to Keep Crushing Southpaws on Tuesday Night
The Phillies will host the Marlins on Tuesday night in the second game of a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia.
Twenty-eight-year-old right-hander Jesus Luzardo will take the mound for the Phillies, while righty Tyler Phillips will make his fourth start of the season for the Marlins after previously being used as a reliever to begin his 2026 campaign.
Below, I will break down this matchup and provide a same-game parlay (SGP) betting angle for Tuesday’s contest.
Marlins vs Phillies F5 Under
Despite his limited experience as a major league starter, Phillips has looked exceptional over his first three outings in the role.
Across more than 48 combined innings as both a starter and reliever, the Marlins right-hander has recorded a stellar 1.86 ERA along with a 1.30 WHIP.
While Phillips has been largely consistent to begin his 2026 campaign, the same can't be said of Luzardo, who has posted a 4.35 ERA through his first 14 starts this season.
That said, Luzardo has a few outlier performances that have inflated his ERA, and he has recorded a quality start in five of his past eight appearances.
Given the promising recent form of both pitchers heading into Tuesday night's NL East showdown, I favor backing the under on total runs scored over the first five innings.
Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
If you've read any of my previous SGP pieces for Action Network, you know I typically prefer pairing two negatively correlated legs to extract more value from a matchup given the inverse relationship between the wagers.
With that in mind, I'll be targeting the player prop market ahead of Tuesday’s game, which should provide our SGP with excellent back-end value alongside the F5 under.
In this case, I feel great backing Marlins shortstop Otto Lopez, who is enjoying a phenomenal start to his 2026 campaign.
While Luzardo has held a slight edge in their previous meetings — with Otto recording just three hits in 15 plate appearances against the Phillies left-hander — I still view this as a prime matchup for Miami’s young shortstop.
Through the first 73 games of the season, Lopez leads all of baseball with an outstanding .343 batting average.
Despite Luzardo’s previous success against him, Otto has absolutely dominated left-handed pitching all year. While the 27-year-old Dominican has posted an impressive .301 average against righties, he has crushed southpaws to the tune of a .478 average while slugging .657 for an outstanding 1.142 OPS in 2026.
Luzardo’s elevated four-seam fastball has given Lopez trouble in the past, but I expect the Marlins shortstop’s dominance against lefties to give him a significant edge at the plate on Tuesday night.
Though the Phillies left-hander undoubtedly possesses elite strikeout ability, he has frequently struggled with command throughout the season, which could prove costly against a hitter with Otto’s plate discipline.
That said, I like Lopez to clear 1.5 HRR (Hits + Runs + RBIs), rounding out our SGP nicely thanks to its negative correlation with the F5 under.
SGP Picks
- Marlins vs Phillies F5 Under
- Otto Lopez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
Parlay Odds: +234 (FanDuel)
