Mets vs. Giants Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 9 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +135 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +100 | 9 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -165 |
The Mets and Giants have played some fun baseball games recently. They combined to go 7-2 to the over in a nine-game regular-season series last year, including a 13-12 thriller in late May that San Francisco won.
I expect more of the same in the New York-San Francisco series finale on Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets are going for a series win while the Giants try to salvage the split in a four-game series.
Continue reading my Mets vs. Giants game guide for my betting pick below.
New York Mets
The Mets have absolutely torn it up during their West Coast road trip. An East Coast team rarely wins six of eight following a transcontinental flight. It looks like the NL East is shaping into a fun fight between the Braves and Mets.
While the Mets don't really hard the ball hard, they do have any identity — put the ball in play, walk a lot, don't strike out and get on base. Also, timely hitting.
The Mets have the third-highest walk rate (11.9%), second-lowest strikeout rate (18%) and seventh-most RBI (100). They are bottom 10 in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate.
Bloop and a bloop, and then maybe another bloop. It's what the Mets do.
Of course, it helps when Pete Alonso is scorching the ball. He has 10 homers in 93 plate appearances, which is Mark McGwire-level production. Some of these balls are going a long way:
As expected, Alonso is among the top 10% of qualified hitters in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and barrel rate. He's also playing surprisingly good defense at first base (on pace to post a career-best Outs Above Average).
In general, the Mets are playing great defense. They're fourth in Defensive Runs Saved and third in OAA.
The defense is probably why Sunday's tabbed starting pitcher is overperforming so wildly.
Starting pitcher: Tylor Megill (RHP)
After a slight increase in fastball velocity during the 2022 campaign, it seems Megill's four-seam fastball is back under 95 mph.
Unsurprisingly, hitters are hitting that pitch harder, as Megill has experienced a 13 percentage-point jump in fastball hard-hit rate against.
However, the transformations Megill made to his slider in 2022 have maintained, and he may have improved it further. He's now getting 42 inches of drop on the breaking ball, four more inches than last year and four inches more than the average MLB slider this year.
But I'm unsure if the pitch has actually been effective. Megill's held hitters to a .152 wOBA on his slider, but the xwOBA on the pitch is .350.
In fact, Megill's been very fortunate through his first four starts. He pairs his 3.00 ERA with a .254 BABIP, a wild 94.3% strand rate and a 12.1% walk rate (6.6 K-BB%, pitiful).
It's unsurprising to see Megills xERA, FIP and xFIP are all near 6.00 — he's due to get shelled.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants needed that win on Saturday. It doesn't help the team's outlook, but the Giants momentarily stopped the bleeding. They had lost seven of eight entering the contest.
San Francisco's rotation is third in xFIP, and seven of its top-nine hitters have an above-average OPS (OPS+ of at least 103). So, what gives?
The defense stinks, as it has since Opening Day 2022. The Giants are again near the bottom of the league in Defensive Runs Saved, and it's sinking their bullpen.
Giants relievers have a 4.02 xFIP and a 4.60 FIP, paired with a 5.47 ERA. The starters have fared better, but Taylor Rogers, Tyler Rogers and John Brebbia are not having a good time. Tyler Rogers is actually pitching great, but Taylor Rogers and Brebbia have a combined ERA nearing 8.5.
But somehow at the hot corner, David Villar, Wilmer Flores and J.D. Davis are cleaning up.
Giants defense at 3B has been fantastic to start the year:
+2 DRS (7th in MLB)
+1.7 UZR (3rd in MLB)
+4 OAA (3rd in MLB) https://t.co/yyRzXduTVq— Jeff Young (@BaseballJeff1) April 22, 2023
The Giants are due for a slight bit of positive regression. They're 0-3 in one-run games and have a Pythagorean record of 9-11.
It also wouldn't hurt if they got a little healthier. Mitch Haniger, Joey Bart, Joc Pederson and Alex Wood are some of the guys missing in action.
While they haven't sustained the most injuries in the league, the Giants are one of eight teams with double-digit players on the injured list.
Starting pitcher: Ross Stripling (RHP)
While Megill has been good but lucky, Stripling has been both bad and lucky. His 7.30 ERA is only bested by his 8.88 xERA, all adding up to -0.4 fWAR.
Check out that batted-ball profile! It's as blue as the water under the Golden Gate Bridge!
It's honestly upsetting to see this. Stripling posted a career high in innings and a career low in ERA last season with Toronto, primarily by scaling back his four-seam usage, upping his changeup-slider usage and introducing a sinker — the arsenal adjustment resulted in a career-high swinging-strike rate.
As a reward for his efforts, the Giants gave Stripling $25 million over two years.
The Giants probably shouldn't be surprised. Stripling is 33, with a 92 mph fastball and a put-away slider that gets almost no break. I'm not sure what the ceiling is here.
It's a small sample size, but Stripling is throwing his slider more than any other pitch (28.8%). So far, hitters have logged a .997 xSLG against it.
Yikes.
Mets vs. Giants Betting Pick
The Mets and Giants are both crushing right-handed pitching.
The Giants currently boast a 122 wRC+ against the right side, second only to Tampa. Meanwhile, the Mets check in with a 113 wRC+, good for seventh in the league.
It makes sense. Both lineups are left-handed heavy, with the Mets stacking five lefties — including switch-hitting Francisco Lindor — and the Giants also carrying five lefties.
Here are a couple of lefties who could pop today:
- LaMonte Wade Jr. has a .408 xwOBA and a 23.8% walk rate.
- Michael Conforto has a 95.7 mph avg. EV and a 57.1% hard-hit rate.
- Brandon Nimmo has a 93.4 mph avg. EV and a 50.8% hard-hit rate.
- Lindor has a .337 xwOBA and is walking more than he's striking out.
Meanwhile, Megill and Stripling are in for a long Sunday Night.
Stripling is probably in for a longer night, given he's going up against a contact-first team in front of a bottom-five defense. The Mets are going to spray the field, and the Giants are going to oblige.
Both bullpens are playing well and actually haven't been used that much over the past week. But it's still been a long, four-game series culminating in a Sunday night game, so I'm not ready to claim either bullpen is 100%.
The weather also looks good (double-digit breezes blowing straight out to center, temps in the mid-60s), and you can never discount the potential of Rob Manfred sneakily inserting juiced balls into a nationally televised game.
I bought over 8.5 (-122) at FanDuel on Saturday night, but I feel good about over 9 (-110) or better.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-122) | Play to Over 9 (-110 or better) |
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