Mets vs. Dodgers Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -108 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 8.5 -122o / -100u | -108 |
It took yet another late collapse from the Mets, but the Dodgers were able to snap their five-game losing skid in the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader. Los Angeles then proceeded to cruise to a 3-0 victory in the second game, as Gavin Stone threw seven shutout innings.
James Paxton will start for the Dodgers on Wednesday looking to improve upon his 3.49 ERA. He will be opposed by David Peterson, who will make his first start of the season after undergoing hip surgery last November.
Mets vs Dodgers odds for Wednesday are tight as both teams are listed at -108 on the moneyline, with an over/under of 8.5 (-122o / -100u).
New York Mets
David Peterson will make his season debut on Wednesday after an encouraging rehab stint with Double-A Binghamton. He struck out eight over 5 1/3 scoreless innings in his final rehab start last Tuesday. He was dominant overall in his rehab outings, with an ERA of just 1.52 across 23 and 2/3 innings.
According to Peterson, he had not pitched without pain for several seasons, and it is valid to think that playing through his hip injury last season caused his career-worst 5.03 ERA.
While the Mets bullpen projects as a strength, it's arguably been the greatest causation toward their disappointing 22-32 start. Nobody has taken charge and found success in high-leverage spots, and we have seen another four blown saves over the last week.
The Mets' inability to finish off games has drawn a lot of attention away from otherwise livable results at the plate. Over the last two weeks, they have hit to a wRC+ of 98, and own MLB's sixth-highest hard-hit rate at 34.7%. Over the entirety of the season, the Mets own a wRC+ of 100.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Looking only at Paxton's 3.49 ERA across what is now a fairly large 49-inning sample would suggest the Dodgers are a little short at -130. A deeper dive into how Paxton has achieved that mark tells us why this game is priced so closely though.
Paxton owns an absurd K/BB ratio of just 1.00. It's not like the balls in play have been soft contact either, as he has been hit hard 41.1% of the time. He owns an xERA of 5.48 and an xFIP of 5.45.
Paxtons' stuff rates out horribly — he owns a Stuff+ of 77, including a rating of 70 on his four-seamer, which he has thrown 62.2% of the time.
Batters have a miss rate of just 10% on pitches inside the strikezone from Paxton. He has generated a chase rate of only 24.5%, so it's not like he's hiding all the hard contact in the zone by getting batters to swing at pitches they shouldn't.
The greatest key to Paxton's success has been his 84.7% strand rate. He has thrown strikes just 57% of the time with RISP though, and he is benefitting from a BABIP of .186 with runners on.
The Dodgers' high-powered lineup has been the second-most effective side versus left-handed pitching this season. They own a wRC+ of 126 versus lefties, and have hit to an OPS of .782. Their BB/K ratio of 0.50 ranks fifth, and their hard-contact rate to lefties ranks sixth.
Mets vs. Dodgers
Betting Pick & Prediction
A total of 8.5 looks too low for this pitching matchup in solid hitting conditions. There is value betting the game to go over 8.5 at anything better than -130.
