On Thursday afternoon, we have the New York Yankees looking to split a series with the Seattle Mariners at Yankee Stadium. The pitching matchup is a terrific one as Luis Castillo squares off against Luis Gil.
Gil is coming off a 14-strikeout performance against the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. It was a career high — and Yankees rookie record — for the young right-hander, who’s been a terrific replacement for Gerrit Cole in the rotation.
Castillo, meanwhile, enters the matchup with a 2.27 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over the last month, so you’d have to imagine we are in for a low-scoring affair in the Bronx.
I was able to cook up a four-leg Mariners vs Yankees same game parlay for Thursday’s matinee. As always, I recommend 1/4 your unit size for these long-shot MLB parlays.
Here's my Mariners vs Yankees MLB Parlay: SGP Picks (Thursday, May 23).
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Mariners vs Yankees MLB Parlay: SGP Picks (+1100, DraftKings)
- Luis Gil Over 2.5 Walks (+110)
- Luis Gil Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
- Under 8 (-115)
Luis Gil Over 2.5 Walks
There is no doubting the electric repertoire that Gil brings to the table, but the rookie is still walking a lot of batters. On the season, Gil has a 4.96 BB/9, which is far too high if he wants to remain efficient moving forward.
The Mariners offense averages about four walks per game, which ranks in the bottom third of the league. However, I do not think that plays much of a factor.
Before Saturday's standout start, Gil had multiple outings where he could not get past the fifth inning. His strikeout stuff has remained consistent throughout the season, but the walks have cost him at times.
You'll notice that this pick correlates with my next leg of the SGP, and it is all based on selling high on Gil after he dismantled the Wbite Sox. It is a good price to take over 2.5 BBs — I'll happily roll the dice that his command is shaky.
Luis Gil Under 7.5 Strikeouts
I told you I was going to continue fading Gil, and what better way than to target his strikeouts? I realize the Mariners strike out the most per game in MLB, but Gil's command issues tell me that he may struggle to survive past the fifth inning.
Gil's strikeout prowess is definitely legitimate (11.39 K/9) — he has lethal stuff, relying on a three-pitch mix of fastballs, sliders and occasional changeups.
I am terrified to fade his strikeout total against the M's, but Gil's body of work tells me he is due for a rough start with a high pitch count.
We are entering a torture chamber with the second leg, but if all things go according to plan, we have a great shot of staying under the number.
Luis Castillo Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Now, we buy Luis Castillo.
He has 30 strikeouts over his last 31 innings, and now he draws a Yankees lineup that is no stranger to punching out. As explosive as the Bombers can be, there are a ton of spots throughout their lineup that are strikeout prone.
Yes, the Yankees are fifth in MLB with a 20% K-rate, but their numbers against Castillo specifically are alarming. In 94 at-bats against Castillo, the current Bombers are hitting an abysmal .156 with 24 punchouts.
That is a 26% K rate, and the metrics suggest that Castillo has been a bit unfortunate over his strong stretch. Despite the dominance over the last month, his strikeout numbers have been lower than expected.
I'll happily ride Castillo's 30 CSW% against a Yankees lineup that has struggled mightily against him in the past.
Under 8
Though I expect Gil to fall to earth due to command issues, I am going to fade both offenses and close out the SGP with an under.
Gil's command could correlate into a big blowup inning, but if he manages to get out of trouble in those situations, there is a good chance that we will be smooth sailing. Castillo's career numbers against the Yankees speak for themselves, and he is truly on a roll right now as he quietly enjoys another elite season.
Both offenses have had their fair share of success throughout the series, but I expect both of them to be muted on Thursday afternoon.
