The New York Yankees (10-7) go for a three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals (8-10) on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is set for 7:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
Clarke Schmidt is set to make his first start of the season, and given New York's injury situation, he's become an important arm. He will be opposed by Kris Bubic, who has had a fantastic start to the season, allowing only three earned runs over his first three appearances.
Bubic factors into my Royals vs Yankees prediction for Wednesday — find my prop pick for the left-hander below, plus the latest MLB odds and betting trends.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction
- Royals vs Yankees picks: Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Strikeouts +110 (DraftKings)
My Royals vs Yankees best bet is Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110).
Royals vs Yankees Odds, Lines
| Kansas City Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 +110o / -130u | +130 |
| New York Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8.5 +110o / -130u | -155 |
Royals vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Kris Bubic (KCR) | Stat | RHP Clarke Schmidt (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 0-0 (Season Debut) |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| 0.96/3.02 | ERA /xERA | — |
| 2.59/2.98 | FIP / xFIP | — |
| 0.96 | WHIP | — |
| 21.1% | K-BB% | — |
| 52.1% | GB% | — |
| 100 | Stuff+ | — |
| 100 | Location+ | — |
Nick Martin’s Royals vs Yankees Preview
Royals Betting Preview: Bubic Under the Hood
After finishing the 2024 campaign with a dominant 2.67 ERA in 30 1/3 innings, Bubic has had an excellent start to this season.
He holds an ERA of 0.96 and a 0.96 WHIP in his initial 18 2/3 innings. His underlying numbers are also quite strong, as he enters this matchup sporting a 3.03 xERA and 2.98 xFIP.
While Bubic ranks in just the 19th percentile in average fastball velocity, he's kept hitters off-guard with a quality four-pitch mix. He holds a modest Stuff+ rating of 100 and a Pitching+ rating of 100, but has been able to generate above-average whiff and chase rates so far this season.
The Royals have had a tough start offensively in this series, as they have scored just three runs in the first two games. They have hit to a wRC+ of just 62 versus righties this season, and hold an OBP of just .265.
Yankees Betting Preview: NY Giving Lefties Troubles
While Bubic has had an excellent start to the season, none of the three offenses he has faced have been nearly as productive as the Yankees versus left-handed pitching. New York's wRC+ of 155 versus lefties ranks first in MLB and first in OPS versus lefties.
The Yankees have hit for plenty of power against lefties, yet they are still middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate and in the league's upper third in terms of walk rate. They struck out just 20.8% of the time last season against lefties and ranked first with a BB/K ratio of 0.59.
New York's hard-hit rate is up +5.3% compared to last season and is currently at 47.7%, the best mark in baseball. They have swung at just 25.1% of pitches outside the zone, the lowest mark in the league.
With Giancarlo Stanton currently on the IL, the Yankees have a little less power in the lineup, but Stanton struck out 31.2% of the time last season and was one of the team's most common strikeout victims.
After a pair of strong rehab starts at Double-A Somerset, Schmidt should be well situated to have a solid season debut. He threw 61 pitches in his last rehab outing and will certainly be on a short leash in this matchup, but is likely to be an above-average starter this season after finishing with a 2.85 ERA and 3.78 xERA in 95 and 1/3 innings in 2024.
Royals vs Yankees Prediction & Prop Pick
While the Yankees haven't been known for being a lineup that grinds out at-bats in recent years, they showed much improved plate discipline in 2024 and have followed a similar process this season. They were the best power-hitting team in the league against left-handed pitching in 2025, but they still aren't striking out very often and feature a number of strenuous outs.
Bubic should be a well-above-average starter this season, but the Yankees provide a very difficult matchup, and this could be a good time to fade him while his value is at its highest. His stuff has not graded out all that well this season, and he may not generate as much swing-and-miss moving forward.
There looks to be value in backing Bubic to record under 5.5 strikeouts at +110 as he faces a high-powered Yankees lineup.
Pick: Kris Bubic Under 5.5 Strikeouts +110 (DraftKings, Play to +100)
Royals vs Yankees Betting Trends
Royals Trends
- Royals are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Royals are 2-6 in their road games against the spread
- Royals starting pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% this season — the lowest mark in MLB; League Avg: 22%
Yankees Trends
- Yankees are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Yankees' 11 last games at home
