One of the most popular promotions in all of the sports betting community is back once again this week: Dinger Tuesday from FanDuel.
The promotion allows each user to bet $25 on one player in every MLB game played that day to hit a home run. Regardless of whether or not the player you bet on homered, you receive $5 in free bets back for each home run hit in the game, with a max return of $25 for the game.
Some users have been limited by FanDuel this season and are only allowed to receive a maximum $50 back in free bets — essentially 10 free homers back for the day in free bets. Last season, there were no limits on the promotion for any players.
Given the average number of home runs in an MLB game in 2022 was 2.14, you will receive an average of $10.07 in free bets back for each $25 home run bet you make, without accounting for the loss in expected value on the vig of the home run yes prop.
If you’re not limited at all, you should play as many games as you’re comfortable with because the promo is still +EV for most of the board.
If you are limited to the max return of $50, an average of 4-5 games will return your $50 maximum free bets. Note: It could be fewer than five games to reach the $50 ceiling if home runs increase again in 2023, which signs show they clearly are.
Here are my five favorite Dinger Tuesday picks for this week.
Angels at. Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET
Pick: Gleyber Torres +400
The sample size is pretty small this early in the season, as barrel rate doesn't usually stabilize until 50 batted balls, but Gleyber Torres has a career high in walk rate and near a career high in barrel rate at 10.3% through his first 39 batted balls.
That tells me he's seeing the ball really well, he's not chasing and when he is getting pitches in the zone, he's hitting the ball hard in the air. Anything over 10% barrel rate projects to above average power. Torres hit 10 home runs in 137 at-bats against left-handed pitching in 2022 and his career OPS is nearly 100 points higher against southpaws than it is against righties. You're never going to get a good price on Aaron Judge to homer at this point, and Torres is the best option for the Yankees.
If you're looking to play an Angels player, I'd recommend Shohei Ohtani or one of the Angels lefties. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt has some of the most dramatic platoon splits of any starter in baseball and his career OPS allowed against lefties is 400 points higher.
Torres is my favorite pick on the board at +400 or better, but if he falls below that, I'd target Ohtani with the short porch in right field.
Rangers at. Royals, 7:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Vinnie Pasquantino +540
Vinnie Pasquantino is one of my favorite young hitters in all of baseball and thus I'm always going to be naturally inclined to think the market is underrating him.
Pasquantino had a slow start to the season, but the underlying peripherals are as good, and in some places better, than 2022. Pasquantino's walk rate is up from 11.7% to 16.4%. His hard hit rate has jumped up over 50% thus far and he's already had four barrels in his first 46 batted ball events. For a hitter that puts as many balls in play as Pasquantino, an 8.8% barrel rate would be seen as plus power.
He gets a matchup with Nathan Eovaldi on Tuesday, but the conditions are ripe for offense at Kauffman Stadium with the wind blowing out to right field. Pasquantino's xSLG is .504, 30 points higher than 2022, and his average exit velocity is up this season. Combine that with an increased average launch angle and Pasquantino could hit 25 homers this season.
Eovaldi always has good underlying numbers as a pitcher, but he also has a home run issue. It's a friendly matchup for the Royals' young slugger, and +540 is a great price given the higher total and positive hitting environment.
Another potential pick is fellow lefty MJ Melendez, who has excellent underlying numbers and similar favorable hitting conditions and a matchup with Eovaldi. I'd play Melendez if Pasquantino falls to +500.
Blue Jays at Astros, 8:10 p.m. ET
Pick: Yordan Alvarez +330
When you have two of the best offenses in baseball facing off, it's hard not to include this matchup in Dinger Tuesday.
Chris Bassitt is one of the most concerning starters thus far in 2023. His Stuff+ dropped in spring training and his results early in the season have been subpar. Combine that with his issues adjusting to the pitch clock and a much less friendly pitching environment leaving the Mets and Bassitt is a fade candidate.
The constant debate for me for the last year of Dinger Tuesday is between Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, the two best power hitters in this lineup. Alvarez's strikeout rate is much higher than it was last season, which does come at a bit of a concern for his MVP potential and batting average risk. But from a home run perspective, Alvarez already has five barrels in 37 batted balls. He's improved his launch angle this season on average — fewer grounders — and his 116 max exit velocity is as good as anyone in the sport.
Alvarez's rest of season projections from an average and slash line perspective should probably be revised downward, but his power shouldn't be. Anything north of +300 on Alvarez to homer is going to be value.
Pirates at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
Pick: Ryan McMahon +350
The highest total of the MLB season. Vince Velasquez. Jose Urena. Coors Field.
This game is a Dinger Tuesday paradise in Denver with the wind blowing out to right field and beautiful weather in the mid 70s. It's as good of a run environment as you'll see.
Ke'Bryan Hayes was the player I originally wanted to target because his improved early season launch angle will certainly lead to more power and homers in 2023. His number at +630 is intriguing, but not quite good enough with the wind blowing out to right field.
Instead, I'm targeting Ryan McMahon, a lefty. McMahon hit a ball in spring training harder than he ever has in his MLB career. He's been focused on pulling the ball more and trying to unlock his power. The raw power is plus and now we're seeing the game power is, too.
Because of this approach, McMahon has a career-high 19% early season barrel rate. He's barreled seven balls and has three homers. His whiff rate and K rate are up because of the change in approach, but the power is improved.
The market is too low on his power with this price at +350, given the home run conditions and the poor pitching he'll face on Tuesday.
Mets at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Pick: James Outman +630
When you're looking for a potential breakout, Outman's profile sticks out immediately. You have to trust the Dodgers' talent development system and Outman could be another success story.
He probably won't maintain a barrel rate above 20%, but this price suggests he's much worse as a power hitter than I think he is. Outman has already hit a ball over 110 mph, which is a sign of plus raw power. He has good walk rates, which suggest a good sense of the zone.
His swing and miss is a problem, hence the high strikeout rates, but he has seven barrels in 31 batted balls already and gets a matchup with the very average Tylor Megill.
Megill had two good starts in favorable environments agains the Marlins, home and away, but his Stuff+ is down and the Dodgers are a much tougher challenge.
Teammates Max Muncy and Freddie Freeman have been red-hot the last week, but Outman's early season profile has him top 15 in xSLG in baseball. Regression is inevitable, but the market is too low on him and his power generally.
Other notes: Kerry Carpenter (DET) is another early season barrel rate darling and is +700 to homer in the first game against Cleveland if you want some day game action. Bailey Falter (PHI) starts game two of the Phillies–White Sox doubleheader, and he has major home run problems against the lefty-crushing White Sox. No value jumped off the board in Twins/Red Sox, but the ballpark and the pitching matchup favor runs in Fenway tonight. The same is true in Baltimore and Washington at Nationals Park. I wanted to play Austin Hays (BAL), but his number is far better at other sports books and thus not worth using in the promotion.
