You have to check out Fanatics Sportsbook's newest big-money contest, the MLB Long Ball Jackpot.
It’s already paid out some big winners… Maybe you’ll be next?!?!
Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot: An Introduction
Here's how it works:
- Opt in and bet a minimum of $5 on a player to hit a home run. You can only select one player.
- If your player hits the longest home run on the MLB slate, you split $50,000 in FanCash with everyone else who bet that player.
- But because the longest home run on a given day is pretty random and about 270 players are eligible on a 15-game slate, there have been some huge winners already.
- Home run distance is measured via MLB's StatCast, which captures "the flight of the path based on radar as far as the radar will allow us to track it" and "if the radar loses it, we project beyond it based on the physics." So, it's not a perfect measurement.
While Fanatics is the first sportsbook to run a competition based on the length of home runs in baseball, several other sportsbooks offer similar contests.
For example, DraftKings runs the NBA King of the Court contest, in which the player who bets the highest PRA total on the slate wins. Of course, this more often than not results in minuscule payouts, given how top-heavy the league is.
On the contrary, the Long Ball Jackpot offers much greater randomness, resulting in much higher payouts.
As such, the contest is far more strategic.
Long Ball Game Theory
On the surface, you’d think you want to target players who hit a ton of homers.
But the game theory in this contest runs deeper, with more statistical variables to consider.
For starters, average home run distance and launch angle are of vital importance for picking Long Ball Jackpot winners. Any search for this contest should start by identifying a group of players who thrive in these categories.
Additionally, you have to take the weather, specifically wind speed, into account. Heavy winds can drastically impact the distance of any home run. At the same time, take into account the ballpark, as some are far easier than others to hit longer homers.
Finally, taking a contrarian stance in this contest is the best route. There’s little correlation between how elite a hitter is and how long he can crush a home run on any given day.
To maximize potential profit, you must get creative with your selections so your winnings are not split among a large group.
Home Run Picks Today: Fanatics Long Ball Jackpot
Nick Kurtz
vs. Rangers, 3:05 PM ET
A legit power hitter, Nick Kurtz ranks in the top eight among qualified MLB hitters in bat speed, but he only has one home run to show for it.
Kurtz banged 36 home runs last season, so he should see some positive regression.
I’m also happy to fade Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter, who has already allowed two blasts to left-handed batters this season.
Throw in the warm weather in Sacramento, and this is one of my favorite bets for today’s Long Ball Jackpot — I’m looking for Kurtz to tear the cover off the ball.
For what it's worth, my guy Grant Neiffer is also on this prop, which makes me even more confident.
Pick: Nick Kurtz Home Run (+390, Fanatics)
Wyatt Langford
@ Athletics, 3:05 PM ET
Sticking with the Rangers-Athletics game, I’m going to try my luck with Wyatt Langford.
Langford only has one home run this season, but he bashed 22 last season, and his bat speed metrics are still encouraging (72.9 MPH).
The Bat X is still projecting Langford to hit 22 homers through the remainder of the season, indicating potential positive regression.
I am also looking to fade A’s starter Jacob Lopez, who has struggled against left-handed batters this season, allowing a whopping 2.7 HR/9 to that side.
Neiffer is also on this prop, which surely bodes well.
Pick: Wyatt Langford Home Run (+525, Fanatics)
Yordan Alvarez
vs. Rockies, 8:40 PM ET
Yordan Alvarez is one of the best power hitters in baseball, with a whopping seven homers on the season.
He’s in a good spot to bash another one on Thursday against Colorado reliever Juan Mejia and the rest of the Rockies’ bullpen.
Mejia has been rocked by left-handed batters this season, allowing a whopping 3.38 HR/9 to the side. The Rockies as a whole rank in the bottom five in reliever HR/9 allowed to lefties.
Sometimes in a market like this, you have to bet some studs. Alvarez fits that bill.
Pick: Yordan Alvarez Home Run (+340, Fanatics)
