Dodgers vs Pirates Tuesday Odds: Over/Under Predictions
| Los Angeles Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-185 | 8 -105o /-115u | -1.5 -120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+154 | 8 -105o /-115u | +1.5 +100 |
Tyler Glasnow is an NL Cy Young Award candidate and leads MLB in strikeouts. Glasnow has dominated in nearly every start and has encouraging peripherals, so his numbers could get even better.
Jared Jones is set to pitch opposite of Glasnow and has made quite an impact as a 22-year-old rookie. He misses bats quite frequently and doesn't issue many walks.
Since both the Pirates and Dodgers haven't been the best against righties, the under should be in play for the Dodgers vs Pirates series opener at PNC Park on Tuesday night. Find my Dodgers vs Pirates prediction on the over/under below.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Jones is exactly what every coach dreams when it comes to making an immediate impact on the mound. He allows some hard contact, but has otherwise looked like a seasoned veteran. Jones is about average with his ground-ball rate, but his 27.8% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate are elite. Those have led to a 3.55 ERA and a 3.26 xERA.
The Pirates have an incredibly top-heavy lineup against righties over the past month. Overall, they only own a 91 wRC+ with a strikeout rate north of 25% and a 7% walk rate. They have five batters with an xwOBA over .320, but the bottom of the lineup hasn't hit righties well at all.
In relief, Pittsburgh has had its issues. The Pirates have a 4.58 xFIP with a walk rate above 11%. Luckily, Jones went at least six innings in all but one start in May. So, he should be able to negate most of the impact Pittsburgh’s bullpen could have on the game.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Glasnow is somehow better than Jones this year. Glasnow owns a 3.04 ERA and a 2.41 xERA. He allows some hard contact, but holds an above-average walk rate and a strikeout rate that's above 33%. He misses a bunch of bats and much of the Pirates’ lineup struggles with making contact, so he could rack up the strikeouts in this spot.
The Dodgers’ lineup hasn't been as potent against right-handers in the past month. They have a 102 wRC+ with an 8.3% walk rate and a 22.7% strikeout rate. Like Pittsburgh, Los Angeles only has five hitters with an xwOBA above .325. Also like Pittsburgh, most of the lineup falls off significantly at the bottom.
The Dodgers’ bullpen is the better of the two in this game. However, Glasnow pitched seven innings three times in May, so this game will likely largely come down to the starters.
Dodgers vs. Pirates
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Pirates aren't a strong hitting team and most would expect MLB’s strikeout leader to mow then down. The Dodgers are usually much better, but the bottom of the order has had some recent issues against righties. As a result, Jones should fare well. Take the under in this game and play it to 7.5. This total is overvaluing these offenses.
Pick: Under 8 | Play to 7.5
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