The San Diego Padres (0-1) host the Detroit Tigers (1-0) for the second game of their series on Friday, March 27. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -202 on the run line (+1.5). The Tigers are +104 on the moneyline and +166 on the run line (-1.5). The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Tigers vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Tigers vs Padres Prediction
- Tigers vs Padres Pick: Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Total Bases (+200); Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+400)
My Tigers vs Padres best bet is Gleyber Torres to go over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Tigers vs Padres Odds
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +166 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +104 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -202 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -126 |
- Tigers vs Padres spread: Tigers -1.5 (+166), Padres +1.5 (-202)
- Tigers vs Padres over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Tigers vs Padres moneyline: Tigers +104, Padres -126
Tigers vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Framber Valdez (DET) | Stat | RHP Michael King (SD) |
|---|---|---|
| Season debut | W-L | Season debut |
| — | fWAR (FanGraphs) | — |
| — | ERA /xERA | — |
| — | FIP / xFIP | — |
| — | WHIP | — |
| — | K-BB% | — |
| — | GB% | — |
| — | Stuff+ | — |
| — | Location+ | — |
Tigers vs Padres Preview
I have two picks for tonight's Tigers-Padres game, which features a strong pitching matchup between Framber Valdez and Michael King.
This game marks the Tigers debut for Valdez, who previously pitched eight seasons with the Houston Astros before signing a three-year, $115 million deal with Detroit over the offseason. Valdez was a two-time All Star with the Astros; he pitched to a 3.66 ERA (3.77 xERA, 3.37 FIP, 3.34 xFIP) over 192 innings last season.
As for King, he was limited to 73 1/3 innings (15 starts) last season as he battled shoulder and knee injuries. Like Valdez, King was a free agent this past offseason but opted to re-sign with the Padres on a three-year deal that includes opt outs after the first two seasons.
The story from Opening Day was Tigers rookie sensation Kevin McGonigle, who went 4-for-5 with two doubles and two RBI to lead Detroit to victory on Thursday.
Tigers vs Padres Picks
Still a fixture atop the Tigers lineup, Gleyber Torres matches up really well against Michael King.
King's a sinker-ball pitcher — he throws it about 30% of the time. Torres had an expected batting average (xBA) of .312 and expected slugging (xSLG) of .582 against sinkers from right-handed pitching last year.
The other secondary King likes to use is his changeup (21%). Torres had an xBA of .314 and an xSLG of .432 against right-handed changeups.
I like Torres to go over 1.5 total bases tonight, which I got at +200.
Pick: Gleyber Torres Over 1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Next up, it's Kerry Carpenter — aka Kerry Bonds.
I'm really surprised we're getting him at +400 to hit a home run. He's probably going to hit lead off here against King. As I mentioned above, King's a sinker-baller and you expect the ball to be on the ground more than not but he was more homer prone than ever last year.
King's ground-ball rate last year dropped below 40% for the first time in his career. He's never been near a 50% ground-ball guy either. He's always been in the low-to-mid 40s and last year he was at 38%. Last year, Carpenter had an xSLG of .833 against sinkers from right-handed pitching.
The only worry with Carpenter is the potential of facing a lefty reliever late in the game. Tigers manager AJ Hinch isn't afraid to pinch-hit for Carpenter in certain spots, but I do think the Tigers are going to give him a little bit more opportunities against lefties this year.
I hope they do because I don't think that their bench options are really better against lefties than Carpenter.
Pick: Kerry Carpenter Home Run (+400)
