Phillies vs Cubs Wednesday Odds & Prediction
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-115 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +145 |
| Chicago Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-105 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -175 |
The Cubs have had their positive momentum halted by the Brewers and Phillies in consecutive games, and now they'll go hunting for a much-needed victory under the lights at Wrigley Field on Wednesday.
Shota Imanaga is set to take the ball for Chicago, looking to further improve upon his worst outing of the season against the Mets a couple of weeks back. He'll be opposed by the wonderous Zack Wheeler, who's once again working on a Cy Young-worthy campaign with a 2.73 ERA through 17 starts.
Will both pitchers, and this ballpark, help us to a low-scoring affair, or is there a team worth targeting in this showdown? Let's get into the numbers below and make a Phillies vs Cubs prediction for Wednesday, July 3.
Chicago Cubs
Imanaga may be just one start removed from allowing 10 runs at the hands of the Mets at home, but it's hard to say that performance was a long time coming.
The lefty had been sporting numbers close to — or at — his season averages with regard to his xBA, xSLG and barrel rate.
He did well to bounce back last time out, too, despite an unspectacular line against the Giants that featured seven runners and three runs against him in six innings.
One thing that's coming down, however, is the strikeouts. After punching out three Giants, his strikeout rate came down for a fourth straight start with a significant downturn in swings and misses. That will make for a very interesting matchup here against Philly, which has really struggled to make contact over the past week with a 24.9% strikeout rate.
Offensively, the Cubs continue to be mired in a slump.
Though there was some life in this team with two wins in three games heading into Sunday, it has put up an abysmal 27.7% strikeout rate in the last week of play and has hit just .202.
The good news is this team's still walking at a 10% clip in a return to the form we saw early in the season. Its .161 isolated power also offers some room for hope if it could just get the ball in play more often.
Philadelphia Phillies
Unfortunately for the Cubs, Wheeler isn't a pitcher who allows a ton of contact.
His punchout rate has remained steady at around 27% over the past three seasons, and while there's been a slight uptick in walks this season, a five-point dip in hard-hit rate and a spectacular .208 xBA — the best of his career — has been of immense help.
He's still roughly average in terms of rolling up ground balls, but with the lack of quality contact opponents are making against Wheeler, it's hard to poke many holes in his game.
His barrel rate is still below average at 6.6%, and his xSLG is pacing to be one of the best of his career at .341.
Offensively, the jury is still very much out on the Phillies.
They lost both Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber over the weekend, and while they have responded with 13 runs over the past two games, they've had the benefit of facing two middling starters in Roddery Munoz and Hayden Wesneski.
In the immediate aftermath of those injuries, they scored just eight runs in three games.
The good news here is that the Phillies are not only showing some signs of life over the last two contests — even against below-average competition — but they rank fourth in the league with a .253 average against fly-ball pitchers.
This isn't a team that's overly reliant on the long ball. Plus, it's been relatively competent when it comes to limiting strikeouts. So, in a pitcher's park, there should be a reasonable expectation of runs.
Cubs vs Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
I really want to believe in a Cubs turnaround here — they've begun to make some marginal improvements of late at the dish — but this matchup simply is not it.
Strikeouts are still a glaring concern, and Wheeler won't be the man to afford much of a turnaround.
On top of that, Wheeler's ability to pitch around a relatively low ground-ball rate doesn't necessarily mean the Cubs can slug the ball on Wednesday, even with the wind blowing ever so slightly out.
The price is a bit concerning here, but I think you have to back the Phillies given the response we've seen in the wake of those two injuries and the matchup we have in store.
It should be something of a pitcher's duel, but Philly's offense is a clear cut above, and there aren't too many reasons for optimism on the Cubs' side.
