The San Diego Padres host the Cincinnati Reds on September 10, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSOH.
The Padres are favored to win the rubber match of a three-game series versus the Reds on Wednesday evening, as Nick Pivetta (2.85 ERA, 164 and 1/3 IP) will face off against Andrew Abbott (2.88 ERA, 143 and 2/3 IP). As the New York Mets have suffered four consecutive losses, the Reds enter this matchup only three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot, while the Padres trail the Los Angeles Dodgers by two games in the division race.
Find my MLB betting preview and Reds vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Reds vs Padres Prediction
- Reds vs Padres picks: Under 7.5 Total Runs -108 (DraftKings, Play to -115)
My Reds vs Padres best bet is Under 7.5 Total Runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Padres Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Reds vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) | Stat | RHP Nick Pivetta (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 13-5 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.6 |
| 2.88/3.60 | ERA /xERA | 2.85/3.80 |
| 3.68/4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.41/3.81 |
| 1.15 | WHIP | 0.96 |
| 15.2% | K-BB% | 19.7% |
| 31.3% | GB% | 33.8% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 102 | Location+ | 108 |
Nick Martin’s Reds vs Padres Preview
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Abbott Key Behind Reds Playoff Push
Despite ranking 25th in offensive wRC+ and 28th in expected weighted on-base average this season, the Reds are still hanging around in the playoff race with a record of 73-72 and an expected record of 76-79. Their pitching staff owns the sixth-best adjusted ERA in MLB this season and has also allowed the second-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball.
With a 2.88 ERA across 143 and 2/3 innings pitched, Abbott has generated 3.4 WAR and is a key reason the Reds still have a chance of stealing a surprising playoff berth. He has outperformed his xERA of 3.59 and xFIP of 4.37 by a fairly considerable margin, as has been the case in each season of his young career.
Abbott has come down to earth since the All-Star break, as in 52 and 1/3 innings of work, he owns an ERA of 4.30 and an xFIP of 4.58. He also holds a Pitching+ of 99 in that span and a 14% strikeout minus walk rate.
Cincinnati's bullpen has been a strength this season, as it ranks 11th in adjusted ERA and has allowed the third-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball. Over the last 30 days, Reds relievers have pitched to the eighth-best xFIP in MLB.
The Reds' offense has remained similarly ineffective over the last 30 days as the rest of the season, as it ranks 24th in wRC+ and 26th in weighted on-base percentage. They also rank 25th with a wRC+ rating of 88 versus right-handed pitching since August 1st, and have struck out 25.3% of the time while ranking 23rd in hard-hit rate during that span.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: San Diego Struggling at Worst Possible Time
San Diego has failed to capitalize on the Dodgers' subpar performance over the last month, posting a 14-14 record in that span. In the previous two weeks, the Padres rank 17th in offensive wRC+ and have struggled to a record of 4-8.
The Padres were drastically less productive versus lefties than righties last season (96 wRC+ versus LHP), and that has remained the case this season. They hold a wRC+ of 94 versus lefties compared to a mark of 105 versus righties. Since August 1st, they have held a wRC+ of 98 versus LHP and have slugged .385.
Xander Bogaerts will remain sidelined with a fractured foot for Wednesday's matchup. While Bogaerts' season has been a disappointment, he has slugged .430 since the All-Star break, while fill-in Jose Iglesias has batted just .194 since Bogaerts' injury.
Pivetta has dominated where it counts recently. Since the All-Star break, he has pitched to an ERA of 2.78 throughout nine starts. He's allowed an xBA of .214 and an xFIP of 4.20 in that span and struck out 23.3% of batters faced.
The Padres' bullpen was projected to be one of the best units in baseball once again this season and has lived up to expectations in pitching to the lowest ERA in MLB across 542 innings of work. San Diego's relievers have remained in strong form recently, as over the last 30 days, they hold an ERA of 3.38 and the fifth-best xFIP in MLB.
Reds vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
While both starters have outperformed their expected results this season, this still appears to be a good spot to back another low-scoring affair, similar to the first two matchups of this series.
Petco Park has been the fourth most pitcher-friendly stadium over the last two seasons. It should be particularly pitcher-friendly on Wednesday evening, as the forecast calls for slight winds blowing in from left field.
Pivetta should have a great opportunity to author another quality start as he takes on a struggling Reds lineup in a pitcher-friendly venue. At the same time, Abbott gets a sneaky-good matchup versus a Padres side that has been much less productive versus lefties for a second consecutive season.
Both bullpens have pitched to strong results this season and have remained comparably effective of late, and are in reasonably good shape from a rest perspective.
At -115 or better, there appears to be value in betting this game to feature under 7.5 runs.
Pick: Under 7.5 Total Runs -108 (DraftKings, Play to -115)
Moneyline
I have no bet for the Moneyline
Run Line (Spread)
I'm making no moves on the Spread also
Over/Under
I'm taking the Under in this one
Reds vs Padres Betting Trends
