The Pirates host the Reds on Friday, June 26. First pitch from PNC Park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Pirates are favored by -200 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +165 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Pirates prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Pirates Prediction
- Reds vs Pirates Picks: Reds ML | Under 7.5
My Reds vs Pirates best bets are on Cincinnati to win outright and on the game total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Reds vs Pirates Odds, Run Line
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -136 | 7.5 -112o / -107u | +153 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +113 | 7.5 -112o / -107u | -187 |
- Reds vs Pirates moneyline: Reds +153, Pirates -187
- Reds vs Pirates over/under: 7.5 runs
- Reds vs Pirates spread: Pirates -1.5
Reds vs Pirates Probable Pitchers
| LHP Andrew Abbott (CIN) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-4 | W-L | 6-7 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.6 |
| 3.83 / 4.86 | ERA / xERA | 2.86 / 2.61 |
| 4.82 / 4.89 | FIP / xFIP | 2.82 / 2.95 |
| 6.8% | K-BB% | 25.4% |
| 39.1% | GB% | 43.7% |
| .275 | BABIP | .262 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 101 | Location+ | 111 |
Reds vs Pirates MLB Betting Preview
This is one of those spots where I’m playing both the side and the total. I make the Reds closer to +155 in this matchup, so I’m happy to back them at anything down to +170. I also project this total right around seven, making Under 7.5 playable to -115.
On paper, there’s a massive gap between the starting pitchers. I project Paul Skenes as roughly a 2.75 FIP arm, while Andrew Abbott still sits closer to a 4.75 weighted FIP in my model.
That’s about a two-run difference in expected talent. But Abbott has quietly been throwing the ball much better over his last five or six starts. His rolling FIP has dropped into the 4.25 range, his strikeout-minus-walk rate has climbed above league average, and he’s allowing less hard contact. I still think he generally outperforms his underlying metrics, but the recent improvement has been real.
The bigger edge for me comes from the offensive matchup. Even though I don’t project Cincinnati as an above-average offense, I still have it grading slightly better than Pittsburgh’s.
The Pirates have been one of the most split-dependent lineups in baseball this season. They’ve crushed right-handed pitching, but against lefties, they rank near the bottom of the league offensively. Without O'Neil Cruz and Spencer Horwitz, that lineup becomes even less intimidating.
Pittsburgh does own the bullpen advantage, and Skenes is clearly the best pitcher in this game. But when I put the full matchup together, the Reds are overpriced as underdogs, and I don’t see enough offense on either side to justify this total. I like Cincinnati on the moneyline and Under 7.5.
Editor's Note: This written pick is a transcription from today's episode of the Payoff Pitch Podcast.
Picks: Reds ML (+170 or Better) | Under 7.5 (-115 or Better)
